Texas Tech vs. Kansas College Basketball Odds & Pick: Points Will Be at a Premium in Big 12 Rematch

David Purdy/Getty Images. Pictured: Bill Self, Bryce Thompson, and Christian Braun.

Texas Tech vs. Kansas Odds

Texas Tech Odds +2
Kansas Odds -2
Moneyline N/A
Over/Under 133.5
Time | TV Saturday, 2 p.m. ETESPN
Odds as of Friday evening and via FanDuel.

Texas Tech looks for revenge on Saturday when it heads to Fogg Allen Fieldhouse to take on Kansas.

The Red Raiders lost at home to West Virginia the last time they were in action, and Chris Beard was not happy about the officiating in the game.

Texas Tech is sitting at 6-5 in the Big 12 and in desperate need of another resume-building win to secure a No. 3 or 4 seed in the conference tournament. Kansas defeated them 58-57 back in December, so Texas Tech will be looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Jayhawks.

Kansas has been on a good run over the past month or so, as the Jayhawks have won five of their last six games in the Big 12. They’re currently projected to be a five seed, so another win over a Top-25 opponent could boost them up to a four or potentially a three seed come March.


When Texas Tech has the ball

The Red Raiders’ offense has been solid during conference play, averaging 1.07 points per possession. It sounds weird, but their biggest strength on offense is their ability to get to the free-throw line. Texas Tech has the second highest free-throw rate in the Big 12 and is shooting better than 76% when it gets to the line. The problem for the Red Raiders is that the Jayhawks hardly foul, as they allow one of the lowest free-throw rates in the Big 12.

Texas Tech hasn’t been shooting the ball very well this season, averaging less than 34% from deep and less than 49% from inside the arc, per KenPom. The Red Raiders really struggled shooting the ball from all over the floor in the first meeting with Kansas, going just 20-of-62 from the field. Kansas also has a distinct advantage inside, as it is allowing only 44% from two-point range and 55.9% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math. So for Texas Tech to win this game, the Red Raiders are either going to have to get to the free-throw line early and often or hit a high percentage from three-point range.

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When Kansas has the ball

Kansas has been extremely average offensively during Big 12 play. The Jayhawks rank sixth in the conference in points per possession and are hitting only 33.7% of their three-point attempts. However, the strength of this Kansas offense is inside, where they are averaging 59.3% on shot attempts at the rim and have the third-highest offensive rebound rate in the Big 12. Texas Tech has struggled with defensive rebounding this season, so the Jayhawks may get a lot of second-chance opportunities on Saturday.

However, where you beat this Texas Tech team is behind the three-point arc. The Red Raiders are allowing an absurd 41.7% from three-point range and allowed West Virginia to shoot 50% from deep the last time they were on the floor. Kansas did not take advantage of the Red Raiders’ weakness in their first meeting, as they only hit 33% of their threes, so they will need to hit a higher percentage if they are going to escape with a win.

Texas Tech also allows the highest free-throw rate in the Big 12. Kansas went 14-of-15 from the free-throw line in the first meeting. So if the Jayhawks can shoot a high percentage from three and get to the free-throw line often, they should be able to beat Texas Tech.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

These two offenses really struggled in the first meeting, as neither were able to average better than 0.95 points per possession. Texas Tech specifically plays a very slow tempo, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a grind it out game played in the half court. I have a hard time seeing how both squads are  going to drastically improve and play a faster tempo than the first meeting.

I only have 130.84 points projected for this game, so I think there is some value on Under 133.5 points.

Pick: Under 133.5 points or better. 

[Bet Texas Tech-Kansas at FanDuel completely risk-free up to $1,000]

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