5 Key Stats For Betting the 2021 WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession

AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay

The PGA TOUR begins its Florida swing at Concession Golf Club with the 2021 WGC-Workday Championship. This event was previously WGC- Mexico but was forced to move to Florida this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Opened in 2006, this course was co-designed by Jack Nicklaus and Tony Jacklin. It was inspired by the putt conceded from Nicklaus to Jacklin in the 1969 Ryder Cup that resulted in a tie, hence why it’s named “The Concession.”

This course hosted the 2015 Men’s and Women’s NCAA Championships, but the WGC-Workday Championship will be the first ever PGA TOUR event played at Concession — a Par 72 measuring 7,470 yards and featuring Bermuda grass greens.

This week’s 71-plater field is absolutely stacked. Typical of a WGC, most of the world’s top players will be in attendance, including the top 10 of the official World Golf Rankings. The only notable absences are Tiger Woods,  Jordan Spieth and Paul Casey.

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Past Winners

Note: Past iterations of this tournament were played on a different course.

  • 2020: Patrick Reed (-18)
  • 2019: Dustin Johnson (-21)
  • 2018: Phil Mickelson (-16)
  • 2017: Dustin Johnson (-14)

5 Key Stats For Concession

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for Concession to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach will be a more important statistic this week than off the tee due to Concession’s wider than TOUR average fairways.

Customary with Nicklaus designs, the closer you get to the green, the more difficult the golf course gets. Sticking approach shots to avoid run off areas around the green or having to putt through massive undulations will be the key.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Collin Morikawa (+27.0) (+5500)
  2. Dustin Johnson (+25.1) (+525)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+21.3) (+7000)
  4. Jon Rahm (+19.9) (+850)
  5. Tony Finau (+16.9) (+1600)

2. Strokes Gained: Par 5

With four par 5s this week, it will be a requirement for golfers to take advantage of them. While difficult to predict, I don’t anticipate Concession to play like a birdie fest, which means that taking care of the par 5s is even more important.

SG: Par 5 Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jon Rahm (+20.1) (+850)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+19.7) (+1100) 
  3. Hideki Matsuyama (+18.2) (+7000)
  4. Cameron Smith (+17.8) (+6600)
  5. Sergio Garcia (+17.5) (+7000)

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green

Nicklaus designs are infamous for their difficult green complexes — they’re small, tough to hit and heavily-contoured. If golfers don’t hit the right spot on their approach shots, they will be in for a tricky up and down.

SG: Around the Green Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brendon Todd (+12.7) (+15000)
  2. Patrick Cantlay  (+12.0) (+1400)
  3. Cameron Smith (+11.0) (+6600)
  4. Kevin Na (+10.4) (+12500)
  5. Dustin Johnson (+9.5) (+525)
golf-length-analysis-2020-us open-winged footJamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Dustin Johnson

4. SG: Putting (Bermudagrass)

The WGC at Concession kicks off the Florida swing. We typically see many of the Bermudagrass putting specialists start to pop up on leader-boards around this time. Putting splits are even more important when trying to find value plays down the betting board. 

SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Kevin Kisner (+27.8) (+10000)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+24.2) (+1100)
  3. Brendon Todd (+23.7) (+15000)
  4. Matthew Fitzpatrick (+20.7) (+7000)
  5. Billy Horschel (+16.8) (+11000)

5. Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs

Nicklaus-designed courses all have a similar style: They can’t be overpowered off the tee and always require strategic and smart golf shots. The greens are undulating and difficult to hit, and good hands around the green are a requirement. For this reason, we often see the same golfers play well at Nicklaus designs on a consistent basis.

SG: Total (Nicklaus Designs) Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+50.6) (+1400)
  2. Justin Thomas (+50.1) (+1850)
  3. Adam Scott (+45.0) (+6600)
  4. Sergio Garcia (+39.5) (+7000)
  5. Jon Rahm (+39.3) (+850)

WGC-Workday Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Par 5 (16%), SG: Putting Bermudagrass (18.5%), SG: ARG (18.5%) and SG: Total Nicklaus (20%).

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
  2. Jon Rahm (+850)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+1100)
  4. Justin Thomas (+1850)
  5. Dustin Johnson (+525)
  6. Collin Morikawa (+5500)
  7. Bubba Watson (+11000)
  8. Tony Finau (+1600)
  9. Webb Simpson (+2250)
  10. Sergio Garcia (+7000)

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