Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Odds & Prediction – ATP Miami Open Semifinals

  • Andrey Rublev is a heavy -440 favorite to defeat Hubert Hurkacz in their Miami Open semifinal match on Friday, April 2nd
  • Hurkacz, the #26 seed, has knocked off three of the tournament’s top-five seeds in the past three rounds
  • Read our preview and best bet for this semifinals match below

With the big three of men’s tennis – Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer – all out of the Miami Open, the stage was set for some of the sport’s emerging stars to move to the forefront in this ATP Masters 1000 event.

Who had Andrey Rublev and Hubert Hurkacz being among those who’d take that giant step forward?

It’s not stunning to see world #8 Rublev into the semifinals of the Miami Open. No one, though – perhaps not even his own family – was penciling Hurkacz in as a member of the tournament’s final four.

Oddsmakers certainly aren’t giving the Polish player and world #37 much chance of getting to the final. Rublev is opening as the -440 favorite to dispose of Hurkacz in their semifinal match on Friday. With the top three seeds all sent packing, #4 seed Rublev sits as the most likely winner of the Miami Open.

Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total at FanDuel
Andrey Rublev -440 -4.5 (-102) O 21.5 (-135)
Hubert Hurkacz +320 +4.5 (-132) U 21.5 (-120)

Odds as of April 2nd

Friday’s match is set for a 7:00 pm ET start at Hard Rock Stadium. It’s being broadcast by the Tennis Channel.

Hurkacz So Good

A 6-2 loser in the opening set, Hurkacz was down 0-2, 15-40 to #2 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the third game of the second set of their quarterfinal. That’s when the tables began turning in his favor.

The Polish player found a steadying presence in his baseline game and began pressuring world #5 Tsitsipas. The Greek star lost his grip on the match. His play became uneven and erratic and he simply imploded.

Rallying for a 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 win, world #37 Hurkacz added another impressive victory to his giant-slaying Miami run. It was his third straight win in the event against a higher-seeded player.

In the round of 16, he toppled Canada’s Milos Raonic, the 12th seed. Another Canadian, sixth-seeded Denis Shapovalov, fell to Hurkacz in the round of 32.

In defeating Tsitsipas for the second time in eight meetings, Hurkacz recorded 15 aces. He saved 10 of 13 break points.

Rublev Rolling Onward

No player in men’s tennis is playing a hotter hand at the moment than Rublev. The Russian is an ATP Tour-best 20-3 this season. He’s won 61 matches since the start of 2020, also the high among ATP players.

Already this year, Rublev ended up helping Russia win the ATP Cup. On his own, he earned the title in Rotterdam. The 23-year-old also reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open.

Dispatching American Sebastian Korda 7-5, 7-6(9-7) from the quarterfinals, Rublev won his fourth straight match and eighth straight set in Miami. The Russian battled back from 2-4 down in the second set tie-break.

Rublev is into his first ATP Masters 1000 semifinal. He’s 74-2 over the past 76 matches in which he’s won the first set.

How It Should Go

Hurkacz, 24, has one thing going in his favor. He and Rublev have met once previously. Hurkacz emerged the winner and it was during a Masters 1000 event.

He stopped Rublev 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-2 in the round of 32 at Rome in 2020. However, that was played on a clay court. The Miami Open is being contested on hard-court surfaces.

Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Stats

Andrey Rublev
Hubert Hurkacz
8 ATP Ranking 37
8 ATP Titles 2
20-3 W-L (2021) 12-5
89.0 Service Games Won 85.0
28.0 Return Games Won 22.0
45.0 Break Points Converted 40.0
151 Aces 108

Heading into this match, Rublev holds the upper hand in every statistical category. Sebastian Korda also came into his quarterfinal against Rublev on a roll. He’d recorded his first career victories over top 20 (Fabio Fognini) and top 10 (Diego Schwartzman) opponents. It didn’t matter. Rublev ousted him in straight sets.

Hurkacz has worked three sets in three of his four Miami matches. He’s survived tiebreakers to win three sets and two matches.

Last year, Rublev won 41 matches, the same total as world #1 Djokovic. The Russian has risen from #23 to #8 in the world rankings since the beginning of 2020.

Seven of Rublev’s last nine losses were to players ranked in the world’s top 20. He’ll simply be too much for Hurkacz to overcome.

Pick: Andrey Rublev (-440), Rublev 2-1 (+250)

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