Ashleigh Barty vs Bianca Andreescu Odds & Prediction – WTA Miami Open Final

  • After an off day Friday, the Miami Open women’s singles final will take place Saturday, April 3 at 1:00 pm EDT
  • 2019 French Open champion Ashleigh Barty and 2019 US Open champion Bianca Andreescu finally meet
  • No. 1 Barty is the favorite. Has Andreescu finally hit the wall? We break down the odds

When Ashleigh Barty and Bianca Andreescu won their first career Grand Slam titles in 2019, it seemed only a matter of time until these two tennis artisans began to forge a fascinating rivalry.

Injuries, and a pandemic, intervened.

They will finally meet for the first time ever on Saturday in the Miami Open final.

Ashleigh Barty vs Bianca Andreescu Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
[1] Ashleigh Barty (AUS) -3.5 (+100) -195 O 21.5 (-108)
[8] Bianca Andreescu (CAN) +3.5 (-122) +155 U 21.5 (-114)

Odds as of April 2

Wear and Tear Makes Andreescu an Underdog

This is a matchup between two of the shorter players in the game – Barty is 5-5, Andreescu (maybe) 5-7 – who have all the tools and multiple ways to win points.

“For Bianca, I haven’t played her before, haven’t hit with her. It’s a fresh one for both of us. But she’s proven time and time again that she loves the big matches, loves the big tournaments, and has the game and the physicality to win them,” Barty said.

But there are extra factors in play.

Andreescu has needed an average of two hours, 23 minutes to win each of her last four matches. She was done in after the first against Maria Sakkari in Thursday night’s semifinal and needed second and third winds to prevail.

She has plenty of will. But will the body follow?

Abdominal Concern for Barty

There is plenty of discourse about how little tennis Andreescu has played following a 15-month injury layoff. She also has so little experience taking on the other top players in the game, as seen on the chart below.

But Barty’s tennis has been equally sparse. She never returned to the WTA Tour after the shutdown in 2020. And in many respects, she disconnected before coming back to prepare for a return at the Australian Open in February.

In her otherwise routine victory over No. 5 seed Elina Svitolina on Thursday, Barty had a medical timeout and returned with what looked like some tape on her abdominals.

In her favor is the fact that she played a 3:00 pm match Thursday. Andreescu was still doing her press conference 12 hours after that, at 3:00 am Friday morning.

Andreescu vs the Top 10

Rank Player WTA Head-to-Head Record
1 Ashleigh Barty Never met
2 Naomi Osaka 1-0 Osaka (Beijing 2019)
3 Simona Halep 1-0 Halep (WTA Finals 2019)
4 Sofia Kenin 3-1 Andreescu
5 Elina Svitolina 1-0 Andreescu (2019 Indian Wells)
6 Karolina Pliskova 1-0 Andreescu (2019 Toronto)*
7 Serena Williams 1-0 Andreescu (2019 US Open final)*
8 Aryna Sabalenka Never met**
10 Petra Kvitova Never met

*Excluding mid-match injury retirements
** Sabalenka won at an ITF in Manchester, UK on grass in 2017

Andreescu Has Been a Night Owl

Barty’s five previous matches have all taken place during the day. So she’s used to the very tough conditions in Miami this year.

Andreescu has played four straight three-set matches late at night when conditions are relatively easier. It might have saved her.

The women’s singles final will be at 1:00 pm.

It will be the heat of the day – except … the temps and humidity are scheduled to drop nicely on Saturday.

Barty With a Big Edge in Most Categories

What makes this matchup so fascinating is that the 24-year-old Aussie gets a slight checkmark in almost every technical category.

But heart and will. are intangibles. And those, Andreescu has in spades.

Ashleigh Barty vs Bianca Andreescu Head-to-Head

Ashleigh Barty
VS
Bianca Andreescu
24 (April 24, 1996) Age 20 (June 15, 2000)
Ipswich, Australia Birthplace Mississauga, Canada
5-5 Height 5-7
9 Career WTA Singles Titles 3
No. 1 (June 24, 2019) Career High Ranking No. 4 (Oct. 20, 2019)
No. 1 Current Ranking  No. 9
$18,030,248 Career Prize Money $6,835,466
13-2 2021 Won/Loss record 9-2

Dictating play with your variety against a hard hitter, as they both do, is one thing.

But handling an opponent’s variety is a different matter. These craftswomen don’t run into that very often. How they’ll deal with that will be the key.

Andreescu has no tournaments planned for the next month. She can let it all hang out and rest later (so taking her in three sets at +460 is not that crazy an idea).

But there might not be much left to hang.

Best Bet: Barty in two sets (+133) 


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