Sunday La Liga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sevilla vs. Atlético Madrid (April 4)

David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Suarez of Atletico Madrid, Ivan Rakitic of Sevilla FC.

Atlético vs. Sevilla Odds

Atlético Odds +175
Sevilla Odds +185
Draw +210
Over/Under 1.5 (+195/-275)
Time Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM

The last of four La Liga matches on Sunday is one of the biggest games of the weekend across Europe — a top-four clash featuring fourth-place Sevilla hosting league leaders Atletico Madrid.

Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.

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Sevilla

Sevilla have taken 55 points from their first 28 league matches. They entered the weekend five points below third-place Real Madrid, seven points below Barcelona and 11 points below Atletico Madrid.

Perhaps more importantly, they were also 10 points above fifth-place Real Sociedad, meaning Sevilla have a very good chance of earning that fourth and final automatic Champions League spot for next season. But there is still work to do — their chances of finishing in the top four are currently 80% according to FiveThirtyEight.

Sevilla are coming off a disappointing 1-1 draw at 16th-place Real Valladolid in their most recent match, on March 20. Prior to that, they beat 17th-place Elche (2-0) and sixth-place Real Betis (1-0) at home.

Those clean sheets weren’t a big surprise, given that Sevilla have conceded just 21 goals in 28 league matches — only one team has given up fewer (see below). But Sevilla have scored only 39 goals, or 1.4 per match.

In terms of the underlying numbers, Sevilla would be a little lower in the table — sixth, with an xG (expected goal) differential of +10.1 according to FBRef.

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Atlético Madrid

Atletico, as mentioned above, entered the weekend with an 11-point lead over Sevilla, six points above Real Madrid and four points above Barcelona.

And yet, Atletico have just a 28% chance of winning the league according to FiveThirtyEight — way below Barcelona, at 61%.

Why is that? Well for starters, Atletico’s form have dipped the past two months. Since the start of February, they’ve won only four of their nine league matches. They’ve also only lost once — the other four games finished as draws — but that’s been enough to let the other clubs back in the race.

Also, there’s a stark difference in terms of the underlying numbers. Barcelona have the best xG differential in the league by far, at +30.5. Atletico are way down in fifth, at +12.9 (just ahead of Sevilla).

Atletico have conceded even fewer goals than Sevilla — 18 in 28 matches. And they’ve scored 51 goals, which is 12 more than Sevilla.

But Atletico are coming off a couple pretty poor performances. Their last match before the international break was a 1-0 win over last-place Alaves in which they had just eight shots, preceded by a scoreless draw with 14th-place Getafe.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Atletico Madrid beat Sevilla 2-0 on Jan. 12, but the stats tell a different story. Sevilla outshot Atletico 13-5 and were well on top in terms of xG — 1.7 to 0.4.

Both teams have had tough stretches in recent weeks, including being eliminated from the Champions League in the Round of 16 — Atletico by Chelsea, Sevilla by Borussia Dortmund. They are relatively even in terms of xG differential, and they’re the top two teams in La Liga defensively.

It’ll probably be low-scoring , but you’ll pay a big price to get the total at under 2.5. So I’ll go for the draw instead.

Pick: Draw (+205)

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