Manchester City vs. Dortmund Odds
|Manchester City Odds||-295|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+140 / -175)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated Monday afternoon and via DraftKings.|
The Champions League quarterfinals kick off Tuesday, and Manchester City are now the clear favorites to win the competition at +200 on DraftKings, significantly ahead of the next lowest number, which belongs to reigning champions Bayern Munich (+375).
But first, City have to deal with Borussia Dortmund. Here’s a closer look at these two clubs, followed by a pick for their quarterfinal first leg:
With seven games left to play in the Premier League, Manchester City have a 14-point lead on second-place Manchester United . They’ve nearly wrapped up the title and also have the Carabao Cup final and an FA Cup semifinal to come, meaning the possibility of an unprecedented quadruple is still very much on the table for Pep Guardiola’s side.
City have been utterly dominant domestically, losing only three of their first 31 league matches, and just once since December. They’ve scored 66 goals, eight more than any other team in the league, and they’ve conceded 21 goals, nine fewer than the next best.
The underlying numbers tell a similar story. Manchester City have an xG (expected goal) differential of +36.4 according to FBref.com, which is well above their closest competitor in that category, Chelsea (+22.1).
Manchester City are coming off a typically lopsided 2-0 win over Leicester City on Saturday. Leicester are in third place, yet City dismissed them with relative ease — outshooting them 12-5, and topping them in terms of xG, 2.3-0.4.
City also had little trouble with Borussia Monchengladbach in the Champions League Round of 16, defeating them 2-0 in each leg. The combined xG of the tie was 2.6-0.8 in City’s favor.
With seven games left to play in the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund find themselves in fifth place with 43 points — 21 points behind league-leading Bayern Munich and seven behind fourth-place Eintracht Frankfurt.
That’s very disappointing for a team as talented as Dortmund. They now have just a 16% chance of finishing in the top four and earning automatic qualification for the Champions League next season, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Borussia Dortmund have scored 55 goals in 27 league matches — only Bayern have scored more (79) — but they’ve conceded 39.
Their position in the table is especially disappointing when you look at the underlying numbers. Dortmund are third in the league in xG differential at +22.2, not far behind second-place RB Leipzig (+26.8) and Bayern (+24.8).
Dortmund are coming off a 2-1 loss at home to Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday, which further damaged their top-four hopes. They outshot Frankfurt 17-14, and topped them in xG 1.7 to 1.4, but suffered a defeat nonetheless thanks to Andre Silva’s goal in the 87th minute.
They advanced to the Champions League quarterfinals by beating Sevilla — who are fourth in La Liga — 5-4 on aggregate. That tie was also close in terms of the xG, with Dortmund finishing slightly ahead at 3.0-2.6.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Jadon Sancho is expected to miss the first leg, which is a big blow for Borussia Dortmund. Sancho has eight goals and 12 assists in 27 Bundesliga and Champions League appearances this season, and surely would have loved to make a big impact against his former club.
Manchester City are clearly in better form and could do lots of damage against a Dortmund team that’s giving up nearly 1.5 goals per match in the Bundesliga, and conceded four goals in two matches against a relatively punchless Sevilla. I’ll take Man City to win the first leg and do so comfortably.
Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (-105)
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