- Juventus and Napoli matchup on April 7th, 2021
- It’s fourth versus fifth in Serie A as both teams battle for a Champions League spot
- Get the latest odds, betting preview and a pick below
Having fallen out of the title race, Juventus face the shock possibility of missing out on a top four place. Level on points with fifth-placed Napoli, the Old Lady hosts the club from Naples on Wednesday, April 7th. This is a pivotal match in the battle for a Champions League spot.
On a run of four consecutive victories, the form guide points to an away win. Juventus also lost to Napoli when the teams met back in February. It would be a mistake to write off the 36-time Italian champions, however, particularly after Napoli conceded three goals to bottom of the table Crotone at the weekend.
Juventus vs Napoli Odds
|Matchup||Spread||Moneyline||Total at DraftKings|
|Juventus vs Napoli||JUV -0.5 (-104) | NAP +0.5 (-117)||JUV -103 | NAP +275 | DRAW +255||Ov 2.5 (-139) | Un 2.5 (+112)|
Odds as of Apr 6
Merih Demiral and Leonardo Bonucci remain unavailable for Juventus. The center-back duo tested positive for COVID-19 during the international break, meaning Andrea Pirlo will stick with Giorgio Chiellini and Matthijs de Ligt at the heart of the defense. Federico Bernardeschi has also tested positive and is out for this one.
Pirlo left Weston McKinnie, Paulo Dybala and Arthur out of the squad at the weekend after the three were involved in a party last week. This punishment perhaps contributed to Juve dropping points in the Turin derby, but Pirlo has brought them back into the group ahead of this crucial midweek clash. McKennie and Dybala could be in line for a start.
After two #UCL finals in 3 seasons, Juventus dismissed Allegri, then Sarri, to end with Pirlo. Cristiano Ronaldo was signed to end the UCL drought. Now, Juve face the very real prospect of missing next season’s #UCL altogether. What ever was the plan?
Torino 2-2 Juventus pic.twitter.com/wfUY4S8x5M
— Adriano Del Monte (@adriandelmonte) April 3, 2021
While Juventus are juggling their squad amid absences, Napoli have more positive problems. Gennaro Gattuso is spoilt for choice in the final third with Victor Osimhen hitting form. Kalidou Koulibaly’s return from suspension is a massive boost, too. Napoli are the third-highest scorers in Serie A this term, and it will be interesting to see what mix of attacking talent Gattuso opts for.
Napoli Make It Difficult
Juventus are used to being allowed to have the ball. They were at 71-percent possession in their draw with Torino. While they created enough chances to win the game, Juventus’ defense was still exposed in counter-attacking situations. This is a particular concern against Napoli, who will not allow Juventus to control the game through slow-paced possession.
A Nigeria affair in the Serie A
🇳🇬Victor Osimhen ⚽
🇳🇬 Simy Nwankwo ⚽⚽
⏱ 65 | Napoli 3-3 Crotone pic.twitter.com/8H9Q8OCdmV
— Goal Africa (@GoalAfrica) April 3, 2021
Napoli are among the Serie A leaders in final third pressures. Only six teams have a better pressure success rate. Gattuso demands tenacity from his players, and this can force opponents into rash decisions. Napoli have created 25 shots from defensive actions, which leads Serie A.
Juventus have passed the ball far more than any other team. This hasn’t translated into passes in the final third or touches in the opposition box, however. Their passing has too often been ineffective, and falling into this low-tempo passing football is a recipe for problems against Napoli, who possess fierce pace to expose the defense in any transition.
— Official SSC Napoli (@en_sscnapoli) April 3, 2021
Gli Azzurri needed only 38-percent possession and eight shots to beat Juventus in February. The defense is still going to concede chances even with Koulibaly returning, but Gattuso will have faith in his attack to deliver.
Juventus vs Napoli Serie A Statistics
|58 yellows, 5 reds||Cards||48 yellows, 3 red|
|15.8||Shots per match||16.9|
|62%||Shots inside the area||54%|
|60.85||Understat expected points||53.63|
Back the Visitors
Juventus have won seven of eight at home to Napoli, but with Pirlo’s side struggling and Napoli on a four-match winning run, those previous results don’t tell us much about Wednesday’s match.
Reputation has clearly impacted these odds. This Juventus team still looks superior on paper. Their home record for the season is strong despite a loss to Benevento last time out.
Napoli last Serie A season: 61 goals, 38 games
Napoli this Serie A season: 62 goals, 28 games
📊 stat via Opta pic.twitter.com/64HvOrt2cV
— Italian Football TV (@IFTVofficial) April 4, 2021
Napoli are playing with confidence, though. The attack is among the most dangerous in Europe at the moment, and they have what it takes to get the upper hand in the contest for fourth. Backing the moneyline is good value, but taking the double chance at -117 is a good option, too.
Pick: Napoli Moneyline (+275)
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