Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
|Time||6:35 p.m. ET|
The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees meet Tuesday in a divisional matchup, with Baltimore looking to win four of its first five games to start the Major League Baseball season.
The Orioles got off to a surprising start, sweeping the Boston Red Sox to start 3-0 their campaign. It was surprising, because the Orioles were projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball. Things went back to normal Monday, though, as they were blown out by the Yankees in a 7-0 shutout defeat.
The Yankees began their season with a series loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, but some of their best hitters, namely Giancarlo Stanton, have seemingly found their swing.
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) April 6, 2021
New York sends Gerrit Cole to the mound for a second time this season, with the hope he can get his first win of 2021 against Dean Kremer.
The Orioles’ offense was a lot better than their record showed last season. Baltimore finished in the top half of MLB in wOBA, wRC+, and batting average and get one of their best hitters in Trey Mancini back for 2021. Additionally, Baltimore did most of its damage against right-handed pitching in 2020, putting up a .325 wOBA and 105 wRC+.
The Orioles will actually have a decent matchup against Cole as well. Baltimore finished 14th against fastball and sixth against sliders in 2020, which are Cole’s main two pitches.
New York Yankees
Once again, the Yankees’ lineup is stacked in 2021 after finishing inside the top 10 in pretty much every statistical category in 2020. They started the series off with a bang Monday, scoring seven runs on seven hits.
The Yankees didn’t make any upgrades to their offense during the offseason, but they kept their entire lineup together. Unfortunately, they will be without Luke Voit — MLB’s home-run leader from last season — for at least the first month.
They’ll have a good matchup though against Kramer, who is mainly a fastball/curveball pitcher. Those are two pitches the Yankees had a lot of success against last season.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Dean Kremer vs. Gerrit Cole
2021 ZIPS Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)
Dean Kremer, RHP
2020 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Kremer was a part of the Manny Machado trade back in 2018, and actually led the minor leagues in strikeouts the year he was traded. He got four starts for Baltimore in 2020, somewhat struggling with a 4.82 ERA and 5.14 xFIP. He had an extremely high K/9 rate, but also an extremely high BB/9 rate, so he clearly had some issues with control.
Kremer’s best pitch is by far his curveball, which he can throw at any time in the count. Hitters had problems with it last season, as they only were able to put up a .200 batting average against it in four starts. It’ll get a ton of swings-and-misses the season, as he has fantastic action on it.
Dean Kremer, Pretty 75mph Curveball. 🌈
Gardner disdainfully looking at his swing. pic.twitter.com/5QkLaRn5zH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 12, 2020
His fastball isn’t that great, sitting around 92 mph, but hitters will be able to get to it this season. He also likes to mix in a sinker, slider and changeup, but all of those pitches are average at best. So, if Kremer is struggling with his curveball in the Bronx, it’s going to be a long night on the mound.
Gerrit Cole, RHP
2020 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Cole was just OK during his first year in the Bronx. His 3.38 xFIP was really good by a normal pitchers standards, but it was his worst mark since he left Pittsburgh in 2017.
Cole went to his fastball more often last season (52.8% of the time) than any other season in his career. The strategy didn’t really pay off, as his heater only generated a 24.7% whiff rate and a .327 wOBA — which was also his worst mark since 2017 with the fastball.
The biggest issue for Cole last season was his inability to keep the ball in the yard. He surrendered a career-worst 1.73 home runs per 9 innings (HR/9) in 2020. In fact, his 13 home runs given up was the second-worst mark in baseball. It seems he haven’t gotten over those issues, because he gave up a homer on Opening Day to Teoscar Hernandez.
Teoscar Hernandez got ALLLLLL of this one
110.3 mph off the bat pic.twitter.com/7zs8GNz2Cd
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) April 1, 2021
The Orioles’ bullpen has been solid through their first four games, but it’s likely going to be one of the worst in the American League. Outside of Tanner Scott, Baltimore doesn’t have an above-average reliever, so the New York should have a good opportunity if they can knock Kremer out of the game.
The Yankees will have a big advantage in the bullpen, getting a break the past few days. Even with Zach Britton being hurt for an extended period of time, they’re are still a really good bullpen with Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green at the back end of it.
I think this is going to be a high-scoring game. The Yankees should be able to jump all over Kremer’s fastball and get into the Orioles’ weak bullpen. Additionally, the Orioles have a decent matchup versus Cole, so I think they should be able to put a couple on the board. Not to mention they’ll be playing in a hitter-friendly park.
Since I have 9.69 runs projected for this game, I think there’s some value on over 8 runs at -114 odds via DraftKings.
Pick: Total Over 8 Runs (-115)
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