- The NFL Draft takes place this week starting with the First Round on Thursday (April 29th, 8 pm ET)
- Both Cincinnati, who pick fifth, and Miami, who own the sixth selection, need offensive line help and Penei Sewell could solve that problem in a hurry
- Read below for odds, analysis, and Draft props to target
It’s been nearly three months since the NFL hosted an event for bettors to wager on, but at long last the wait is over. The 2021 NFL Draft beings on Thursday (April 29th, 8 pm ET) with the First Round, and there is no shortage of ways to get action down.
The most popular ways to do so will be by betting the over/under on players’ draft position, as well as wagering on the first running back | wide receiver | offensive lineman | safety | defensive lineman | cornerback | linebacker | non quarterback | defensive player | and special teams player off the board.
There’s plenty of value to be found, so check out all the odds below plus a bet in every category to target.
Player Draft Position Over/Unders
|Player||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Mac Jones||3.5 (+205)||3.5 (-260)|
|Kyle Pitts||5.5 (+125)||5.5 (-159)|
|Ja’Marr Chase||5.5 (+133)||5.5 (-167)|
|Trey Lance||5.5 (-159)||5.5 (+125)|
|Penei Sewell||6.5 (-112)||6.5 (-112)|
|Rashawn Slater||9.5 (-112)||9.5 (-112)|
|Jaylen Waddle||10.5 (-112)||10.5 (-112)|
|Patrick Surtain II||10.5 (+125)||10.5 (-159)|
|DeVonta Smith||11.5 (-143)||11.5 (+115)|
|Jaycee Horn||12.5 (-112)||12.5 (-112)|
|Micah Parsons||13.5 (-103)||13.5 (-122)|
|Christian Darrisaw||15.5 (-112)||15.5 (-112)|
|Alijah Vera-Tucker||15.5 (-112)||15.5 (-112)|
|Kwity Paye||16.5 (-125)||16.5 (+100)|
|Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah||19.5 (-112)||19.5 (-112)|
|Caleb Farley||21.5 (-130)||21.5 (+105)|
|Jaelan Phillips||21.5 (-112)||21.5 (-112)|
|Teven Jenkins||24.5 (-107)||24.5 (-120)|
|Greg Newsome III||24.5 (-112)||24.5 (-112)|
|Najee Harris||25.5 (-125)||25.5 (+100)|
|Zaven Collins||25.5 (-112)||25.5 (-112)|
|Azeez Ojulari||25.5 (-112)||25.5 (-112)|
|Trevon Moehrig-Woodard||26.5 (-112)||26.5 (-112)|
|Jamin Davis||26.5 (-112)||26.5 (-112)|
|Rashod Bateman||27.5 (-112)||27.5 (-112)|
|Travis Etienne||31.5 (-112)||31.5 (-112)|
|Kadarius Toney||31.5 (-112)||31.5 (-112)|
|Landon Dickerson||36.5 (-112)||36.5 (-112)|
|Asante Samuel||37.5 (-112)||37.5 (-112)|
|Javonte Williams||42.5 (-112)||42.5 (-112)|
|Eric Stokes||45.5 (-112)||45.5 (-112)|
|Jevon Holland||49.5 (-112)||49.5 (-112)|
|Barron Browning||55.5 (-112)||55.5 (-112)|
|Davis Mills||68.5 (+114)||68.5 (-138)|
|Kellen Mond||75.5 (-110)||75.5 (-110)|
|Jamie Newman||164.5 (-110)||164.5 (-110)|
|Ian Book||207.5 (-110)||207.5 (-110)|
All odds taken April 26th from DraftKings and FanDuel .
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Sewell Won’t Last Past No. 6
There’s no draft position over/unders currently available for Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, the heavy favorites to go first and second overall, but every other player likely to go in the first round has NFL Draft odds. One player’s over/under to target is Oregon tackle Penei Sewell.
If you’re the #Bengals, how do you not take Penei Sewell to protect Burrow’s blind side?
•Burrow recovering from multi ligament knee injury
•CIN ranked 27th in sacks allowed/game
•CIN near top of NFL in empty set drop backs
Passing on Sewell seems borderline irresponsible
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) April 23, 2021
Most mock drafts have Sewell going to Cincinnati at number five, and it’s not hard to figure out why. Sewell is a generational talent with rare athleticism for an offensive lineman. The Bengals desperately need to improve an o-line that ranked 27th in pass blocking and allowed franchise QB Joe Burrow to be sacked 32 times in just 10 games. The Bengals could go receiver instead, and look for line help later on, but it’s much easier to find a difference making wide receiver in the later rounds than it is an offensive lineman.
If the Dolphins pass on Penei Sewell at 6, it is malpractice. They're actively trying to get Tua killed. pic.twitter.com/147FWxnSc4
— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 24, 2021
Even if Cincy does pass on Sewell at pick 5, Miami would be wise to snatch him up with the sixth selection. No Dolphins offensive lineman had a PFF grade north of 66, while they already addressed their receiver need by signing Will Fuller. To add fuel to that fire, Miami just traded away starter Ereck Flowers to Washington, creating an opening on their offensive line.
Pick: Penei Sewell Under 6.5 (-112)
Fade DeVonta Smith
One player who has seen his stock fall recently is Heisman Trophy Winner DeVonta Smith. The Alabama wideout’s weight has been a hot topic of discussion lately, after he weighed in at 166 pounds at the medical combine earlier this month.
Some scouts are concerned about DeVonta Smith's size. Valid or nah? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/T2EiYTnzPC
— theScore (@theScore) April 21, 2021
No one is questioning Smith’s talent, however when was the last time you saw a 166-pound receiver dominate in the NFL? Plenty of teams are reportedly worried that he’ll get pushed around at the pro-level, and the opportunity cost might be too high for a team to draft him with a top-11 pick.
Also working against him is the fact that both Dallas and New York, who own picks 10 and 11, appear set at wide receiver, while his teammate Jaylen Waddle and LSU’s Ja’Marr chase are considered safer prospects.
Pick: DeVonta Smith Over 11.5 (-143)
Odds to Be First Running Back Drafted
There’s only been one running back selected in the First Round in each of the past two Drafts, but this year there’s a chance two could go on Day 1.
The two RB’s with Round 1 grades are Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, and while Harris is the favorite, don’t sleep on the former Clemson star. Etienne is the more explosive back, in the same mold as Alvin Kamara, and is a stud in the passing game.
Highest career rushing grades (CFB):
1. Travis Etienne – 96.7
2. Javonte Williams – 96.3
3. Najee Harris – 96.2
4. Jonathan Taylor – 95.3
5. Kareem Hunt – 95.0 pic.twitter.com/k6uTwBVuHE
— PFF (@PFF) April 19, 2021
He scored 70 times for the Tigers in four seasons, and his 102 career receptions make him perfectly suited to step in right away as a 3-down back.
Pick: Travis Etienne (+150)
Odds to Be First Wide Receiver Drafted
|Terrace Marshall Jr.||+6600|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||+25000|
There’s no debate on who will be the first wideout off the board. LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase was ridiculously productive at the collegiate level and is one of the better receiving prospects to enter the Draft in the last few years.
Chase dominated quality future NFL corners in the SEC, and racked up 2,093 receiving yards and 23 TD in just 24 games. He has 4.38 speed and elite ball skills that were on display every game during the Tigers’ National Championship season.
People forget Ja'Marr Chase put on a show against Trevon Diggs in 2019 🍿 pic.twitter.com/34dTf4V0Dc
— PFF (@PFF) April 26, 2021
Let’s not overthink this one.
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase (-1000)
Odds to Be First Offensive Lineman Drafted
Much like the receiver category, there’s little doubt who the first offensive lineman to be selected will be. As detailed above, Sewell is an athletic freak and isn’t likely to make it past pick six.
Rashawn Slater is another name that could sneak into the top-10, but doesn’t possess the same type of ceiling as Sewell and is almost two full years older.
Pick: Penei Sewell (-560)
Odds to Be First Safety Drafted
Safety is not a deep position in this year’s Draft, and there’s a strong possibility no player from that position is taken on Day 1. Trevon Moehrig-Woodard is the highest ranked safety on the board, but after him the talent drops off a cliff.
The TCU product racked up six picks, 109 tackles and 20 pass break-ups over the last two seasons, while earning All-Big 12 honors. He might be the only safety taken in the first two rounds.
Pick: Trevon Moehrig-Woodard (-400)
Odds to Be First Defensive Lineman Drafted
Defensive lineman is a fascinating position this year, as no player stands heads and shoulders above the rest. Jaelan Phillips is favored to be the first d-lineman taken, which is odd since Kwity Paye has a higher draft position prop.
Paye’s career stats at Michigan won’t blow anyone away, but scouts reportedly believe his traits can make him an elite pass rusher.
— Coach Brandon Jordan (@CoachBTJordan) April 24, 2021
Phillips is perhaps the better raw talent, but his injury and concussion history present enough red flags to push him further down the draft board.
Pick: Kwity Paye (+125)
Odds to Be First Cornerback Drafted
|Patrick Surtain II||-305|
|Greg Newsome II||+3300|
|Asante Samuel Jr.||+6600|
This is another slam dunk, as Patrick Surtain II has a great chance to be taken in the top-10. The Alabama product was a 5-star recruit out of high school and a lockdown, press corner for the Crimson Tide.
Surtain is the son of a former NFL’er, and has the length and quickness to excel at the pro level. He earned Pro Football Focus’ highest DB grade since 2014, and is rumoured to be Dallas’ top choice if he’s still around at pick 10.
Pick: Patrick Surtain II (-305)
Odds to Be First Linebacker Drafted
Micah Parson appeared to a lock to be the first linebacker off the board, and although he’s still the heavy favorite, character issues have lengthened his odds a shade.
The Penn State product is one of the most athletically gifted players in the draft, and while the off-field allegations are very troubling, just google them, NFL teams aren’t ultimately going to be able to pass on his talent.
Who will be the best defensive player to come out of the NFL Draft?
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) April 23, 2021
Parsons has every tool needed to be great at the next level, and tested in the 96th percentile among all linebacker prospects since 1987.
Pick: Micah Parsons (-305)
Odds to Be First Non QB Drafted
|Patrick Surtain II||+2000|
Kyle Pitts is a unicorn. He’s arguably the most talented skill position player in the Draft and is set to be the highest tight end drafted since Mike Ditka.
Pitts is going to create matchup nightmares in the pros, because he’s too big for corners to defend and too fast for safeties and linebackers.
A generational talent.
Kyle Pitts would be awfully fun to watch in Atlanta. 😍
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) April 23, 2021
He’s the logical selection at pick number four for Atlanta, unless you believe the Falcons will take a QB. If that’s the case, Sewell at +500 offers value, since o-line needy Cincinnati picks fifth, but Pitts is the most likely choice in this category.
Pick: Kyle Pitts (-150)
Odds to Be First Defensive Player Drafted
|Patrick Surtain II||-125|
|Greg Newsome II||+8000|
Surtain is not only the top corner on the board, but he’s also the favorite to be the first defensive player selected. You could make the argument for Parsons, but Surtain is a much safer bet.
Both Detroit at pick 7 and Carolina at pick 8 are possible landing spots for Surtain, and there’s little chance Dallas passes on him with their gaping hole in the secondary.
Patrick Surtain II only allowed two RECs of 20+ yards in 2020
PFF's CB1 in the 2021 NFL Draft⚡️ pic.twitter.com/hqkWh0kWbc
— PFF (@PFF) April 25, 2021
Parsons ceiling meanwhile, is likely pick 9 to Denver according to most industry experts, but Denver’s pressing need for a QB will likely prevent that from happening.
Pick: Patrick Surtain II (-125)
Odds to Be First Special Teams Player Drafted
Max Duffy and Evan McPherson are the co-favorites, but there’s plenty of reasons to like Jose Borregales. The Miami native transferred to the Hurricanes after three impressive seasons at FIU, and was 20-of-22 on field goal attempts in 2020. He was 6-of-8 from beyond 50 yards at the collegiate level, and booted a 57-yarder for the Hurricanes last season.