Thursday Europa League Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction: Manchester United vs. Roma (April 29)

Matthew Peters/Manchester United via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United standout Paul Pogba.

Manchester United vs. Roma Odds

Manchester United Odds -190
Roma Odds +500
Draw +325
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | Time Thursday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Wednesday via PointsBet

Roma look to salvage their season in the Europa League semifinals, facing a daunting task against Manchester United in the first leg on Thursday night.

United are second in the Premier League and playing well at the moment. Not many teams in Europe can match their talent when fully fit. Roma will look to pressure them and get an advantage with an away goal or two at Old Trafford.

Let’s break down what kind of game to expect on Thursday.


Manchester United

The Red Devils come into this game with a massive advantage in form. (We’ll get to Roma’s struggles in a bit.)

United have lost just once since the start of February, and that was in the FA Cup quarterfinals to Leicester City. After that game on March 21, Manchester United won five straight before a 0-0 draw against Leeds United over the weekend.

This season, when fit, Manchester United can beat anyone. Paul Pogba changes their midfield, adding another playmaker alongside Bruno Fernandes. When Pogba is on, United are a different team.

The one position that United may feel let down by this season is at striker, where Anthony Martial has struggled and Mason Greenwood is not best-equipped. Edinson Cavani has been the best answer up top with Greenwood and Marcus Rashford out wide. It’s going to be tough for the Red Devils to falter with a fully fit front four.

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Domestically, Roma are poised to finish behind the rest of Serie A’s big clubs in seventh. They’re six points behind their city rivals, Lazio, who have a game in hand.

This matchup could not come at a worse time for Roma. Their form have been downright awful over their last eight games, of which they’ve won just two. Roma are winless in their last four, which includes defeats to Torino and Cagliari in Serie A.

In the quarterfinals, Roma were very fortunate that Ajax did not bring their shooting boots to the first leg. The Dutch giants won the expected goals battle 3.3-0.5 but lost the game 2-1. A 1-1 draw in Rome in the second leg was enough for Roma to advance.

The Giallorossi play a 3-4-2-1 under manager Paulo Fonseca, with Lorenzo Pellegrini and Henrik Mkhitaryan supporting professional goal-scorer Edin Dzeko. The big issues come in defense, having allowed three goals in both of those aforementioned Serie A defeats.

Betting Analysis & Pick

There are so many things going against Roma entering this game. They have allowed more than 2.5 expected goals against in four of their last seven games, including matchups with Sassuolo and Torino. It’s not like Roma is giving chances away to Italian giants.

What Roma does is create opportunities. They consistently go over 2.5 goals and will be going full throttle to get what would be a big away goal at Old Trafford.

With Fonseca’s side pushing the tempo and United in better form, I see the over getting hit here.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals


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