Davis Mills NFL Draft Profile
Davis Mills NFL Draft Props
We’re entering Day 2 of the draft, and as of Friday afternoon, the over/under for Mills is between 60.5 and 62.5 across the industry.
Here are the best lines I’ve find for both sides.
I’m betting the over.
The NFL seems to like Mills, and his expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks puts him on the borderline of Rounds 2-3, which is right in line with his over/under …
… but quarterbacks tend to be over-mocked relative to where they actually go in the NFL draft, and although he isn’t in my official top 100 big board, I have Mills ranked at No. 109.
And that’s not far off from what one sees at a couple of consensus big boards.
There’s a decent chance that he’s realistically slated for Rounds 3-4, so I see value on the over.
Full disclosure: I have a middle position on Mills between 60.5 and 73.5. I bet it a couple of weeks ago. I still like the over at 60.5.
I also have an arbitraged position on him from a couple of weeks ago.
Great find by @amicsta: The line has moved at FanDuel but is still available at Circa.
David Mills o60.5: -115 at Circa, 1.15 units
David Mills in Round 2: +500 at DK, 0.36 units
Win ~0.64 units as long as Mills does not go in Round 1. https://t.co/PQZVQrNMDX
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 20, 2021
- Round 2: -110, PointsBet
- Round 3: +175, Both
- Round 4: +300, DraftKings
- Round 5: +700, Both
- Round 6: +1600, PointsBet
- Round 7: +3300, Both
At these odds, I would not bet it — although if you really want to do so, then I think focusing on Rounds 3-4 is best.
You can bet on Mills to be the next quarterback selected at -160 at FanDuel, but I wouldn’t do that.
Mills has more hype surrounding him than any other quarterback in this class outside the Big Five, but I think it’s pretty close between Mills, Kyle Trask and Kellen Mond for who will be the No. 6 quarterback in the draft.
Davis Mills (-200) vs. Kellen Mond (+155): Based on everything I look at, this is close to a coin flip.
Mond +155: 1 unit, DraftKings
Mond is the very last player in pre-draft top 40 fantasy rookie rankings.https://t.co/olUqB2838q
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 24, 2021
Given the opportunity, I’ll fade Mills: The number is no longer available, but I bet over 61.5 at -115 this morning and would still bet him at the number below.
Pick: Over 60.5, -128; 1.28 units
Bet Now: FanDuel
Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
Mills: More like “Meh-lls,” amirite?
I’m tempted to end the blurb there, but I’ll persevere.
Mills was the No. 1 pocket-passing recruit in the 2017 class, so he has talent. His arm strength is sufficient, and his size is prototypical. He looks like an NFL quarterback when he’s in the pocket and has time to throw to a receiver who breaks open.
Just when I was getting frustrated and ready to turn off the tape, Davis Mills goes and does something like this and totally redeems himself!
Cover 2 hole shot to the field (ish)… LFG pic.twitter.com/LsPSUB3sAW
— Tim Jenkins (@TJenkinsElite) February 18, 2021
But he has no speed and little rushing instinct. He has decent pocket maneuverability thanks to his excellent size-adjusted agility (6.95-second three cone), but he has poor overall pocket awareness.
He stares down receivers and is careless with the ball: Over the past two years, he had 17 turnover-worthy plays (per Pro Football Focus). Those turned into eight interceptions in 13 games … just 13 games.
And that’s the big problem with Mills: He hasn’t progressed as a quarterback because he has gotten almost no playing time.
He redshirted his first year at Stanford, and then attempted just two passes as a reserve in his second year. As a redshirt sophomore, he started six games in place of injured starter K.J. Costello, who transferred after the season, so Mills in 2020 was slated for a full allotment of playing time — but then Stanford played only six games because of the pandemic, and Mills missed the season opener in the COVID-19 protocol.
In total, Mills has played in just 14 college games (11 starts) and passed for only 3,468 yards and 18 touchdowns (with eight interceptions). Those numbers are far too low for a guy who is four years removed from high school and turning 23 as a rookie.
He’s a developmental prospect, and with his lack of rushing ability, he will draw limited fantasy interest unless he goes in Round 2. And even if that happens, he will be little more than a speculative long-term stash.
NFL Prospect Comp: Jarrett Stidham with less college experience
Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
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