- Dominick Reyes looks to snap his losing skid against Jiri Prochazka in the main event
- We liked the slight dog in Reyes but is there more value to be had with props?
- Aside from the betting line, here are a handful of props that hold value
The UFC returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 25 on May 1. The card has some intriguing fights, including the main event between Dominick Reyes and Jiri Prochazka. That being said, there are some great UFC Vegas 25 props on this card.
We’ve already broken down the full UFC Vegas 25 main card and found some value on a few fighters, including some underdogs. Let’s take a look at the props list below.
Total Rounds Odds
|Matchup||Total Rounds at DraftKings||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Reyes vs Prochazka||1.5||-152||+115|
|Chikadze vs Swanson||2.5||-190||+140|
|Cutelaba vs Jacoby||1.5||-106||-125|
|Strickland vs Jotko||2.5||-177||+130|
|Stamann vs Dvalishvili||2.5||-360||+250|
All odds as of April 30
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Strickland vs Jotko Under 2.5
As you saw in the preview, I liked Sean Strickland to win and likely do so by TKO, however, he is a -250 favorite which is a bit chalky, yet the under 2.5 rounds is plus-money which I love.
Last time out, Strickland scored a first-round TKO over Brendan Allen, and although in his return to the UFC after a motorcycle accident, he went to a decision with Jack Marshman. However, Marshman is super durable, and many didn’t think Strickland would be able to put him out.
Jotko, on the other hand, has been knocked out before as in his past two losses he was TKO’d by Uriah Hall and Brad Tavares, who isn’t known for his power. Ultimately, Strickland is the better striker and will be able to keep Jotko off of him, and I like him to land something big and get the TKO win in the first two rounds.
Pick: Strickland-Jotko Under 2.5 (+130)
Fight Goes The Distance Odds
|Matchup||Yes Odds||No Odds|
|Reyes vs Prochazka||+250||-360|
|Chikadze vs Swanson||-165||+123|
|Cutelaba vs Jacoby||+225||-335|
|Strickland vs Jotko||-148||+110|
|Stamann vs Dvalishvili||-335||+225|
Chikadze-Swanson Goes The Distance
Giga Chikadze had a breakout year in 2020 as he went 4-0, and he now gets his toughest test to date in a perennial contender, Cub Swanson, and the fight seems destined to go the distance.
5-0 in the Octagon!
— UFC (@ufc) April 27, 2021
In Chikadze’s last four UFC fights, he went the distance in three of them and scored a first-round TKO last time out. However, that was against Jamey Simmons, who isn’t UFC-caliber, and took the fight on a week or two notice. Swanson, meanwhile, is super durable and has not been finished by strikes since 2009.
Chikadze is a kickboxer who will use his range and try and pick apart Swanson. If he does that, I highly doubt he will be able to get the knockout. On the other hand, Chikadze has proven he can take some good shots, and I’m not sure Swanson will try and wrestle him. Regardless of who wins, I like the fight to go the distance at -165 in the UFC Vegas 25 props.
Pick: Chikadze-Swanson Goes the Distance (-165)
Method of Victory Odds
|Result||KO / TKO Odds||Submission Odds||Decision Odds|
|Reyes beats Prochazka||+200||+1400||+500|
|Prochazka beats Reyes||+120||+1400||+600|
|Chikadze beats Swanson||+275||+1400||+162|
|Swanson beats Chikadze||+700||+700||+275|
|Cutelaba beats Jacoby||+120||+1100||+650|
|Jacoby beats Cutelaba||+240||+1400||+400|
|Strickland beats Jotko||+210||+900||+140|
|Jotko beats Strickland||+700||+1600||+375|
|Stamann beats Dvalishvili||+750||+1200||+350|
|Dvalishvili beats Stamann||+1000||+650||-148|
Reyes by KO/TKO/DQ
Dominick Reyes vs Jiri Prochazka is going to be a fun fight for however long it lasts.
Prochazka is the former RIZIN champ who made good of his UFC debut as he knocked out Volkan Oezdemir in the second round. Reyes, meanwhile, has finished four of his six wins, but his decision win over Ovince Saint Preux should have been considered a TKO method of victory.
Bet on Dominick Reyes guys pic.twitter.com/yNKi12Bwzc
— mmaconscience (@mmaconscience) April 28, 2021
Although Reyes is on a two-fight losing skid I actually like this style matchup for him. Prochazka is wild who keeps his hands down and swings for the fences. In his debut, he landed over five significant strikes a minute in but also absorbed over seven. I think Reyes can also mix in his wrestling and wear down Prochazka. I think he will eventually get the KO/TKO method of victory in the second or third round to cash this prop at UFC Vegas 25.
Pick: Dominick Reyes by KO/TKO/DQ (+200)
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