The PGA TOUR will head north to Charlotte, N.C. this week for the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. If last week’s field at the Valspar was light on depth, this one certainly makes up for it as 10 of the top 15 players in the world will be in the field with the PGA Championship on the horizon.
After finishing T13 as the favorite at last week’s Valspar Championship, Justin Thomas is right back at the top of board at +800 ($10 bet wins $80). Thomas never really threatened to contend at the Copperhead Course, but that severely underrates the way he was playing. JT led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green but — and stop me if you’ve heard this before — was let down by a poor putting performance.
Thomas figures to be a pretty popular favorite considering his form and the fact that he won the 2017 PGA Championship at this very course.
Thomas has plenty of formidable company at the top of the odds, starting with second-favorite Jon Rahm. The Spaniard is coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes in elite fields (THE PLAYERS, The Masters) and has finished 13th or better in six of seven starts in 2021.
Bryson DeChambeau is third on the board at +1400 and could fly a bit under the radar after his poor showing at Augusta. Underwhelming in the most-watched tournament of the year is a good way to keep casual bettors away, but don’t forget that Bryson was coming off a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T3 at THE PLAYERS in his two starts before heading to Augusta.
Who knows what to do with Rory McIlroy at this point. The former World No. 1 continues to get a plenty of respect from bookmakers in every field, but it has been quite some time since he was in serious contention to win a PGA TOUR event.
McIlroy is coming off back-to-back missed cuts at THE PLAYERS and The Masters, but prior to that he strung together consecutive top-10 finishes at the WGC-Workday and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bookmakers have shown to be very skiddish about stretching Rory’s odds and +1800 may seem like a discount at an event where he has two wins, but that price is probably still a little short of where McIlroy’s true odds should be in a field this deep.
McIlroy is joined by Viktor Hovland, who made a late charge up the Valspar leaderboard on Sunday, and Webb Simpson at +1800.
There’s a bit of a drop between that trio and the next group, but I imagine a lot of bettors will be shopping in this next range:
- Tony Finau +2500
- Patrick Reed +2800
- Will Zalatoris +2800
- Patrick Cantlay +2800
- Corey Conners +3000
I know that Will Zalatoris has been lights out since becoming a PGA TOUR regular but who would have thought he’d have the same odds as Patrick Reed and Patrick Cantlay in a field this deep. Zalatoris is just a couple of weeks removed from a runner-up finish at the Masters so he’ll certainly have supporters even at this price point.
Last week Corey Conners opened as the third-favorite. Conners has certainly taken a significant leap over the past year but there did seem to be a lot of folks who thought oddsmakers were overreacting by putting the Canadian in the same tier as players like Reed and Hovland at the Valspar. Apparently the bookies disagreed with that notion and are happy to keep Conners, who finished T21 at the Valspar, in this range.
2021 Wells Fargo Championship Odds
|Harold Varner III||+9000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+15000|
|Byeong Hun An||+25000|
|Ted Potter Jr.||+50000|
|Bo van Pelt||+100000|
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