Wednesday brings us baseball starting in the early afternoon, and it runs late into the night. To sum it up: it’s a perfect day to bet some baseball.
Our staff has four picks for today’s games, and it starts with A’s vs. Diamondbacks at 3:37 p.m. ET. Then, our writers have two picks for Dodgers vs. Pirates just after 7 p.m. ET, and they close it out with a bet for Royals vs. Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET.
Check out each pick for all four games, and use the table below to navigate to any bet.
MLB Odds & Picks
A’s vs. Diamondbacks
PRO Report: Well, it appears that we have quite the MLB mismatch on our hands on Wednesday afternoon.
The Oakland Athletics, who are 36-26 on the season and currently own a one-game lead over the Houston Astros in the AL West, send Sean Manaea to the mound against Matt Peacock and the Arizona Diamondbacks, who sport the worst record in the league.
That sentence alone screams “one-sided,” and the latest MLB odds show that the betting market is in complete agreement.
The current Diamondbacks vs. Athletics consensus moneyline sits at Arizona +185, yet our MLB PRO Projections set this line at +152, representing a 4.6% edge for those willing to back the massive underdog.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that our projections expect Arizona to win. In fact, at +152, we’re suggesting that the Diamondbacks will lose this game more often than not.
Dodgers vs. Pirates
Brad Cunningham: Tony Gonsolin is going to make his 2021 debut, and if we go back to last season, he was actually really dominant, as he had a 3.33 xERA and 3.88 xFIP. He was really good with his control, as his walk per nine innings rate sat at a very low 1.35.
The Pirates lineup has been awful this season, as they are third-to-last in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Gonsolin is also mainly a fastball/split-finger pitcher and held opponents under a .280 wOBA on both pitches. The Pirates are by far and away the worst team in baseball against fastballs.
Tyler Anderson has been fine for the Pirates this season, keeping his xERA and xFIP under 4.5, and what I like about his matchup here is the Dodgers actually don’t hit lefties that well. They have only a .306 wOBA, which is 18th in MLB.
Both of these bullpens are actually pretty good, too, boasting an ERA under 4.00 as group.
I have only 7.75 runs projected for this game, so I think there’s plenty of value on under 9.5 runs at -117 and would play it down to 9 runs and -120 odds.
Dodgers vs. Pirates
Kenny Ducey: It’s never a bad idea to fade the Dodgers’ offense against a lefty, and that’s exactly what I’m doing tonight.
Not only has Los Angeles been underwhelming at the plate over the past two weeks with a 93 wRC+, but it has also struggled mightily against southpaws dating back to last year.
The Dodgers are 18th in baseball with a .306 wOBA against lefties this year and will face a very decent one in Tyler Anderson. The Pirates hurler owns a 4.34 xERA this year, thanks to improvements in the strikeout and walk categories. There have been a few rocky outings for the former Rockie, but overall, he’s been a trustworthy pitcher.
The Pirates’ offense, meanwhile, hasn’t been trustworthy, and Tony Gonsolin has been nails this year with a 2.31 ERA and a strikeout rate that’s well above league average.
Royals vs. Angels
Mike Ianniello: Brad Keller and Griffin Canning both enter this game sporting ERAs north of 5.50. Keller has been a little better recently, but neither of these pitchers remotely scream “shut down a lineup,” and they both are prone to give up the long-ball.
Behind them, neither team has a very good bullpen, with the Angels especially having one of the worst bullpens in the league this season. Both of these teams also rank in the bottom-six of the league in defensive runs saved, and nothing helps an over like a couple of free baserunners and extended innings.
Both offenses have been really solid of late, each ranking in the top 10 in wOBA over the last two weeks. Kansas City is fourth in the league in batting average over that span, and the Royals have the third-most runs, while the Angels have the fifth-most. Los Angeles has scored eight runs by itself in back-to-back games.
Obviously, losing Mike Trout is devastating for the Angels’ lineup, but the offense has not totally fallen off a cliff. Since Trout’s injury, the Angels rank 11th in average, ninth in wOBA and ninth in wRC+.
The biggest story this season has been Shohei Ohtani. LA’s designated hitter has hit 17 home runs and leads the Angels in runs and RBI. Jared Walsh is also having a breakout season, batting .297 with a .917 OPS and 13 home runs. Justin Upton has been red-hot over the last couple of weeks too.
This is the last game of the night on Wednesday, and it airs on ESPN. What is more fun than staying up to root for a late-night over?
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