- A stacked UFC 263 card goes down from Arizona on June 12th, 2021
- Every favorite on the main card is above -225, but what props present value?
- Aside from the betting line, here are a handful of props that hold value
The UFC is back in front of a full capacity crowd in Glendale, Arizona on Saturday, June 12 for one of the best pay-per-views of the year. The card sees two title fights and the return of Nate Diaz, and although title fights are usually competitive, every favorite on the main card is above a -225 favorite. However, there are some UFC 263 props I like to cash on Saturday night.
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We’ve already broken down the full UFC 263 main card and found some value on a few fighters, despite it being a chalky main card. Let’s take a look at the props list below.
Total Rounds Odds
|Matchup||Total Rounds at DraftKings||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Adesanya vs Vettori||3.5||-190||+140|
|Figueiredo vs Moreno||4.5||-125||->-106<-|
|Edwards vs Diaz||4.5||-118||-112|
|Maia vs Muhammad||2.5||-190||+140|
|Hill vs Craig||1.5||-121||-110|
All odds as of June 11
Figueiredo vs Moreno 2 Under 4.5 Rounds
I can’t believe this line is at 4.5 rounds. Although the first fight went the distance, it was lined up at 1.5 rounds with the over at -200. It was lined at 1.5 as both Figueiredo and Moreno were coming off first-round wins just three weeks early at UFC 255, so the expectation was someone would finish early as well. However, both men had to cut weight twice in three weeks and didn’t have time to prepare for one another, so it was hard for either guy to be ready.
Now, both men have spent 25 minutes inside the Octagon together, and they have had months to prepare. I expect Figueiredo to come out guns blazing looking for the early KO, and if he doesn’t get it, there is a real chance he gasses himself, and Moreno takes advantage and gets the stoppage. Regardless, I don’t even think this fight hits the championship rounds as I think Figueiredo KO’s Moreno in the first two rounds, or Moreno gets the TKO or submission win in the third.
Pick: Figueiredo-Moreno Under 4.5 rounds (-106)
Fight Goes The Distance Odds
|Matchup||Yes Odds||No Odds|
|Adesanya vs Vettori||-139||+105|
|Figueiredo vs Moreno||+100||-132|
|Edwards vs Diaz||-110||-121|
|Maia vs Muhammad||-162||+120|
|Hill vs Craig||+200||-278|
Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori Doesn’t Go The Distance
Just like Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno, even though Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori went the distance in the first fight, I expect this one to end by stoppage.
Both men have promised the judges won’t be needed as their first fight went the distance and was a split decision and a fight both men thought they clearly won. Now, especially after Adesanya lost his last fight to Jan Blachowicz, I expect him to come out and have a statement performance and finish Vettori by TKO.
The Italian gets hit a lot and I do think he may gas out especially if he tries to shoot for so many takedowns and they get stuffed. Adesanya, meanwhile, has improved so much that I don’t think Vettori will be able to keep up with the champ’s strikes. But, if he does somehow get the fight to the ground, I do think there is a chance he could ground and pound TKO or submit the champ.
Pick: Adesanya-Vettori Doesn’t Go The Distance (+105)
Method of Victory Odds
|Result||KO / TKO Odds||Submission Odds||Decision Odds|
|Adesanya beats Vettori||+188||+2000||+140|
|Vettori beats Adesanya||+1000||+750||+375|
|Figueiredo beats Moreno||+165||+750||+200|
|Moreno beats Figueiredo||+1000||+1200||+333|
|Edwards beats Diaz||+130||+1400||+120|
|Diaz beats Edwards||+1100||+1100||+900|
|Maia beats Muhammad||+1600||+350||+450|
|Muhammad beats Maia||+300||+2500||+110|
|Hill beats Craig||-125||+1600||+350|
|Craig beats Hill||+1400||+400||+700|
Edwards Wins By KO/TKO/DQ
Leon Edwards has a massive fight ahead of him on Saturday night as he faces fan-favorite Nate Diaz in a five-round welterweight fight.
Although Diaz is someone that is hard to finish, as of late, he is getting cut open way too much, and we saw Jorge Masvidal stop him due to cuts. In this fight, Edwards, on paper, is better everywhere, and I think he will just piece up Diaz on the feet, and if it goes to the ground, he will elbow Diaz and cut him open, which is the way I expect this fight to end.
Pick: Leon Edwards by KO/TKO/DQ (+130)
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