It was a quiet week from a betting perspective at the year’s final major.
If you didn’t have Louis Oosthuizen or Jordan Spieth, then there wasn’t even a sweat as Collin Morikawa came away with his second major over the past 12 months.
And at the Barbasol, I’ll never end up on Seamus Power as a favorite no matter how good his form was, so that one’s pretty easy to move past.
We move to the 3M Open now, which has been a pretty tough event to figure out over the past two years.
The first year, it looked like a bomber’s paradise, but last year, the board had a mix of everything. I think I’ll stick with the long players who can putt once again this year, but this is still an event I’m trying to get a feel for.
TPC Twin Cities comes in at 7,431 yards for a par 71.
The main defense is water, which is in play on about half of the holes, but if players stay dry, they can go really low. I’d expect the winner to be in the 20-under par range, as that’s right where we’ve been the previous two years with Matthew Wolff and Michael Thompson.
In the end, it will likely come down to whoever brings a hot putter with them to the Twin Cities with an edge to the bombers who can take advantage of the longer par 5s.
Dustin Johnson opens as the favorite here at +700 after a solid eighth-place finish at The Open. He’s slowly beginning to find his form again with four straight top-25 performances. With the rest of the big names taking the week off, this is a spot where he could return to his winning ways on a course that seems to give the edge to the longer hitters.
Tony Finau and Louis Oosthuizen are next in line at +1400. Neither really does much for me at that price.
Finau placed third here a year ago, so he’s definitely got the game to play well here. Louis is a bit of a surprise entrant given he didn’t play the last two years and is coming off another grueling near-miss in a major.
Patrick Reed comes in right behind Finau and Oosthuizen at +1800. Reed’s game has been going in the wrong direction for a couple of months now. His results have trended downward in four straight tournaments. He played fine here in 2019, finishing 23rd, but Reed is a guy I like to look to at bigger numbers in the stronger fields.
Cameron Tringale and Robert MacIntyre close out this range at +2500.
Tringale was third here last year, so he’s another guy who seems to fit the course, but he’s also someone who’s tough to back at that price considering he’s never won.
MacIntyre has set his sights on locking down PGA Tour status for next year, so he’ll be motivated to play well in his 3M debut this week. He’s played consistently for nearly a year now. He has missed only one cut worldwide in 20 starts since November, that being at TPC Sawgrass.
We’ll have a pretty light card this week.
But I’ll start out with Bubba Watson at +4000 on Bet365. Bubba missed the cut here a year ago, but the form wasn’t anywhere near as good as it is now. He finished sixth his last time out, and even though he missed the cut, he did shoot a 67 here. So, he’s shown that he can put a good round together here.
I’ll also go to Chris Kirk at +7500 on FanDuel. Kirk was out of his element at The Open, but in his prior start at the Rocket Mortgage, he came in 12th. Kirk started well here last year with a 66 but stalled out after that. In these lower-tiered events, he’s still a golfer who could put together a good week.
Both winners here opened at 125-1, so we might as well take a chance or two down the board this week.
I’ll start with Brandon Hagy at 130-1 on DraftKings. Hagy has found a good little run of form with back-to-back top-20s. Hagy is a really long hitter who has been putting better in recent weeks. He made the cut here last year, and wasn’t playing near as well, so I’d expect his good results to continue here.
My last play here will be Brandon Stone at 200-1 on DraftKings. Stone is eighth in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in Europe this year and also gains strokes with the putter.
I mentioned long players who can putt, and this is my real flier.
Stone’s form isn’t great, but he does have three wins on the European Tour under his belt and picked up a win in Africa earlier this year.
But he’s never a guy who will show any kind of form. He will just boom or bust. He might miss the cut by five. But if the driver and putter both show up this week, he can contend in this type of field.
The 3M Card
- Bubba Watson +4000 (.83 units)
- Chris Kirk +7500 (.44 units)
- Brandon Hagy +13000 (.25 units)
- Brandon Stone +20000 (.17 units)
Total Stake: 1.69 units
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