MLB Player Prop Bets: 2 Picks for Monday, Including Mike Minor & Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (July 20)

Joshua Bessex/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

After taking a good, long look at today’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Prop tool — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade — there’s one strikeout total I’m targeting today.

Additionally, there’s a position player prop that I believe might provide some value while adding an extra sweat.

Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing for Tuesday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.


MLB Player Props & Picks

Mike Minor — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Royals vs. Brewers Brewers -170
Time 4:10 p.m. ET
Best Line DraftKings

I can’t find a good reason why the over is juiced here.

Minor’s strikeout rate is down over the past couple of seasons, from 10.20 K/9 in 2017 to 8.72 K/9 this year. Meanwhile, over the past 30 days, the Brewers have posted the 10th-best strikeout rate in MLB at 21.6%.

On top of that, it’s not like Minor is having a great season. He’s posted a 5.67 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 19 starts, and his expected statistics don’t show room for any positive regression.

So why would we expect him to notch six Ks against a Brewers lineup that has really turned it around recently? The Brewers have posted a 111 wRC+ over the past two weeks, while Minor has recorded just 10 strikeouts over his past 20 innings.

Our Action PRO system is projecting Minor at 5.4 punchouts, and considering the matchup today, I believe there’s value on the under at -110 or better.

Action Labs Grade: 9/10

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Blue Jays -135
Time 7:07 p.m. ET
Best Line DraftKings

I generally try to avoid total base props that are this juiced, but I’m going to make an exception for Vladito here.

Garrett Richards has been very below average this season. He’s had his moments, but he’s generally inconsistent and his 51.2% hard-hit rate ranks dead last among qualified pitchers. Combine that with his 92 mph average exit velocity, and he’s posted a pathetic .290 xBA this year.

I don’t need to reiterate what Guerrero has done this season. But, you might not know that he’s 5-for-7 lifetime against Richards with three doubles. His 102.5 average exit velocity against him has added up to a .628 xBA and an .898 xSLG.

Richards could surprise in this spot and post a random great start, but it looks like Guerrero has his number either way. I’ll take the over total bases at -125 but would stay away at anything worse than -130.

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