Oklahoma & Texas to the SEC? Projected Point Spreads vs. Every SEC Team for Both

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Texas vs. Oklahoma

College football took a brief pause from talk of expanded playoffs and name, image and likeness to focus on a report that Oklahoma and Texas have reached out to the SEC about joining the conference.

According to the Houston Chronicle’s Texas A&M beat writer Brent Zwerneman, both Big 12 teams have had conversations about leaving. Missouri and Texas A&M left the Big 12 for the SEC nine years ago, and the report suggests an announcement could happen in the coming weeks.

SEC commissioner Greg Sanke declined to comment at his media day, although his quote of “no comment on that speculation” didn’t exactly put the rumors to rest, either.

A move wouldn’t happen in 2021 — and might not happen at all — but what would it look like if Texas and Oklahoma did join the SEC?

Thanks to The Action Network’s Collin Wilson, we have power ratings to give us a glimpse.

The power ratings are based on the team’s meeting on a neutral field and does not factor in home-field advantage.

Texas vs. SEC in 2021

Projections Based on Collin Wilson’s Power Ratings

Opponent Spread
Alabama Alabama -10.3
Auburn Texas -1.7
LSU Texas -3.7
Mississippi State Texas -6.5
Tennessee Texas -12.5
Kentucky Texas -8.3
Ole Miss Texas -2.5
Texas A&M Texas A&M -2.7
Vanderbilt Texas -18.7
Florida Texas -1.9
Missouri Texas -10.4
South Carolina Texas -26.1
Georgia Georgia -4
Arkansas Texas -2.4

According to Wilson, Texas would be favored against 11 of the 14 SEC teams this season. The Longhorns would be a massive 26.1-point favorite over the worst team in the conference, South Carolina. A couple closer matchups would be expected against LSU, Arkansas, Auburn and Ole Miss.

New Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian enters his first year after serving as Alabama’s offensive coordinator. The familiarity with the Crimson Tide might help, but Texas still comes in as a double-digit underdog to Nick Saban’s team.

The Longhorns would also be underdogs to Texas A&M and Georgia.

Oklahoma vs. SEC in 2021

Projections via Collin Wilson’s Power Ratings

Opponent Spread
Alabama Alabama -2.1
Auburn Oklahoma -9.9
LSU Oklahoma -11.9
Mississippi State Oklahoma -14.7
Tennessee Oklahoma -20.7
Kentucky Oklahoma -16.5
Ole Miss Oklahoma -10.7
Texas A&M Oklahoma -5.5
Vanderbilt Oklahoma -26.9
Florida Oklahoma -10.1
Missouri Oklahoma -18.6
South Carolina Oklahoma -34.3
Georgia Oklahoma -4.2
Arkansas Oklahoma -10.6

Oklahoma has been the top team in the Big 12  for years, winning each of the last six conference championships. That hasn’t slowed down in the transition between Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley, who continues to churn out Heisman-level quarterbacks.

The next in line is Spencer Rattler, who threw for over 3,000 yards in his first year as the starter for the Sooners. Rattler enters the year as one of the betting favorites to win the Heisman Trophy, and is a big reason why Oklahoma would be favored in almost all of its games against the SEC.

Almost.

No, the Sooners wouldn’t be favored over Alabama. Only Clemson enters the season with that honor. But the Sooners come in as just 2.1-point underdogs to the Crimson Tide in our power ratings. Oklahoma is favored against everyone else.

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