Brewers vs. Tigers Odds, Preview, Prediction: Value Lies in Run Line Behind Brandon Woodruff (Wednesday, September 15)

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Woodruff.

Brewers vs. Tigers Odds

Brewers Odds -225
Tigers Odds +180
Over/Under 9
Time 1:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB Network
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Brandon Woodruff steps to the mound for the National League Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers to face Matt Manning and the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday afternoon.

The Tigers have stabilized themselves in third place in the American League Central, but they’re only three games behind Cleveland. The Brewers, meanwhile, were heavy favorites going into the battle of Peraltas (Freddy and Wily) in the opener on Tuesday night and are large favorites yet again.

Will Milwaukee’s notable starting pitching staff give it yet another significant edge?

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Reliable Woodruff Among League’s Best

Woodruff has had a phenomenal season. His 2.48 ERA places him fourth in all of baseball, behind fellow teammate and potential Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes.

The right-hander ranks in the top 8% of the MLB in wOBA and hard-hit percentage and the top 6% of the league in average exit velocity. Essentially, he checks every ideal peripheral box for a pitcher.

Woodruff did, however, allow four earned runs in six innings of work against Philadelphia last week. He is due for one of these blowups each month, but the rest of his appearances are rock solid.

Woodruff uses his four-seam fastball and sinker about 60% of the time, throwing more than 96 mph on both pitches. On fastballs that are thrown at 96 mph from right-handers, the Detroit lineup has a .298 xwOBA against 406 such pitches since Aug. 1. This only encapsulates about 6% of the pitches Detroit has seen on the season, so it may struggle against a starter with this type of velocity.

The Milwaukee lineup absolutely loves destroying fastballs from righties, especially over the last couple of months. Its average exit velocity eclipses 90 mph on this type of pitch and their xwOBA is .356 as a collective unit.

Best of luck to Manning because his average exit velocity is 91.3 mph on the season, ranking in the bottom 5% of the league. Look for the red-hot Dan Vogelbach and Lorenzo Cain to feast on Manning.

The Brewers bullpen has been a huge strength this season, but they don’t boast a lot of depth.

Devin Williams has one of the most lethal pitches in baseball, his changeup that is called the “Airbender.” Josh Hader, meanwhile, is one of the consistent relief options in all of baseball. Brad Boxberger, Hunter Strickland and Aaron Ashby have also all been solid.


Manning Faces Difficult Test

Manning has struggled all season. He has been on shortened duty in September too, with only 6 2/3 innings under his belt. In one of those appearances against the Oakland A’s, he allowed eight earned runs.

Manning only ranks in the first percentile in strikeout percentage. The Brewers strike out 24.1% of the time on the season, so Manning should not hurt them. With a fastball hitting team facing him, he’s in trouble.

Detroit has put together some great at-bats this month. The Tigers have hit righties particularly well in September, but those pitchers are not at the level of Woodruff.

As mentioned above, the Tigers have issues with high-velocity pitching, which is Woodruff’s forte. This should negate any sort of offensive push the Tigers might display.

The Detroit bullpen has been solid lately. Since the start of August, the Tigers relief corps own a 3.75 ERA, but those numbers are inflated compared to a 4.75 xFIP and 1.42 WHIP.

Detroit is allowing baserunners to reach, but it’s somehow recording outs, so the runners do not score. Michael Fulmer is an excellent option, but Gregory Soto and José Cisnero (two go-to options) contribute to this façade of success.

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Brewers-Tigers Pick

In all, there is no other line to go with here than the Milwaukee spread. The moneyline has no value, and with one of their aces on the mound and a rested bullpen, the Brew Crew should win this handily.

If Woodruff gets his fastball and sinker by the Detroit offense, the Tigers will have a long afternoon at the ballpark. Take Milwaukee -1.5 (-135) and play it to -1.5 (-155).

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-135), play to -1.5 (-155)

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