Liverpool vs AC Milan Odds & Prediction – Champions League Group Stage Matchday 1

  • Liverpool host AC Milan on Matchday 1 of the 2021-22 Champions League Group Stage
  • This is the first competitive meeting between the two since 2007
  • Read below for the latest odds, betting preview and prediction

Liverpool and AC Milan matchup at Anfield on Wednesday, September, 15th. Playing in the most competitive group in the competition, every match carries extra significance given the difficulty of the other opponents (Atletico and Porto). Having started well in the Premier League, Liverpool are comfortably favored for this clash with a resurgent AC Milan. Jurgen Klopp’s side are priced at -210 on the moneyline.

Two giants of the European game, this is the first time they have faced off in a competitive match since the 2007 Champions League final. Milan was victorious on that day, getting revenge for Liverpool’s heroic comeback in Istanbul a couple of years earlier. Liverpool have enjoyed further success in the competition since then, of course, while Milan are back in the Champions League for the first time since 2013-14. They fell to Manchester United in the last 16 of the Europa League in 2020-21.

Liverpool vs AC Milan Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Liverpool vs AC Milan LIV -1 (+130) | MIL +1 (+160) LIV -210 | MIL +500 | DRAW +260 Ov 2.5 (-166) | Un 2.5 (+136)

Odds as of Sep 14 at FanDuel

Teams In Form

Liverpool made light work of their clash with Leeds at the weekend. A comprehensive team performance was overshadowed by Harvey Elliott’s serious injury, but Klopp can be delighted with how his side has started the campaign after a down season in 2020-21.

Jordan Henderson should replace Elliott in the midfield three. Elliott’s absence is an issue for Liverpool’s depth long-term, but Henderson’s experience will be invaluable in front of a raucous Anfield faithful on Wednesday. The rest of the team should remain the same – Roberto Firmino is sidelined, meaning most of the team picks itself.

Milan have started just as strongly on the domestic stage. It’s three wins from three Serie A matches, including a professional performance in a 2-0 win over Lazio on Sunday. They are without Tiemoue Bakayoko and Rade Krunic, but Stefano Pioli has plenty of options across his squad.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored on his return from injury at the weekend – it will be interesting to see if Pioli goes with the Swede or Olivier Giroud upfront. Alexis Saelemakers should retake his place on the right flank, too.

Stylistic Clash

Milan ranks third in attacking third pressures in Serie A so far this season. The Franck Kessie and Sandro Tonali midfield partnership has energy to cover a lot of ground when Liverpool are in possession. Averaging just 51% possession in their three matches so far, the visitors are comfortable enough out of possession.

While the small sample from this campaign so far shows Milan to be a heavy pressing side, they are unlikely to adopt that approach at Anfield. Absorbing pressure is the best way to go, but that creates its own problems.

Milan aren’t blessed with pace to counter. Giroud and Ibrahimovic are massively accomplished and experienced, yet neither poses a threat in behind. They are very reliant on supporting runs from Saelemakers, Rafael Leao and Brahim Diaz if they are to trouble Liverpool in transition. Breaking Liverpool’s press with long balls and attacking in behind is their best chance of causing an upset.

Liverpool are used to dominating possession, but they struggled to break down Chelsea at Anfield before the international break. Milan have allowed just 1.7 expected goals against in their three matches this season.

Liverpool vs AC Milan Statistics

AC Milan
84.9% Pass completion 85.6%
59.4% Average possession 51.1%
2 yellows, 0 reds Cards 3 yellows, 0 reds
25 Shots per match 16
64% Shots inside the area 48%
+1.87 Expected goal difference per 90 +1.71

Milan Make Liverpool Work

Given the impressive nature of Milan’s defensive performances this term, it’s tempting to go for Under 2.5 here. Both of Liverpool’s home games this season have finished with two goals.

Some will also be intrigued by Milan on the moneyline. They are long odds for a team in such good form. It’s not the best option here, though, despite what should be a close-fought encounter.

Home advantage is a real factor once again. That’s putting us off going for an away win, but a small parlay can provide some great value. Milan are going to keep this game close and will be happy to leave with a draw.

Pick: Liverpool to score under 2.5 goals and Milan to win or draw (+172)

The post Liverpool vs AC Milan Odds & Prediction – Champions League Group Stage Matchday 1 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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