Tuesday MLS Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction for Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami: Expect Low-Scoring Affair (Sept. 14)

Ira L. Black – Corbis / Getty Images. Pictured: Rodolfo Pizzaro

Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami Odds

Toronto FC Odds +120
Inter Miami Odds +220
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -110)
Day | Time Tuesday | 7:30 p.m. ET
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Inter Miami look to continue their second-half surge toward the postseason when they visit a Toronto side that might just be playing out the string.

Miami have won two in a row and six of their last nine to climb up to ninth in the Eastern Conference and only two points back of the seventh and final East playoff place entering the weekend.

Toronto have not earned a point  since the interim tag was removed from manager Javier Perez following a draw against New York City FC six games ago.

Despite the second-highest payroll in MLS — behind only Miami — the last-place Reds are 16 points adrift of the last East playoff place with only 11 games remaining.

It’s the second of three meetings between these sides. Miami took the first at home 3-1 on Aug. 21, and they’ll close the season series in South Florida on October 20th.

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Toronto FC: Reds Sputtering

When Perez took over for Chris Armas, he initially led a modest Reds revival.

A surprising win at the Supporters Shield-leading New England Revolution began a seven-match run where TFC lost only once — though they left too many points on the table with four consecutive home draws.

After a 2-2 home draw against New York City FC — in which Perez removed stars Michael Bradley and Jozy Altidore at halftime — the interim tag was removed.

The Reds went on to lose five straight, effectively ending their postseason hopes as their defensive issues again came to the forefront in the form of 11 goals conceded in that stretch. Their 49 goals allowed overall are the most in the league.

Injuries to Altidore, 2020 MLS MVP Alejandro Pozuelo, promising young Canadian international striker Ayo Akinola and midfielder Ralph Priso-Mbongue haven’t helped, but Toronto’s attacking problems are secondary to those on the other end of the pitch.

Inter Miami: Flamengos Finding Their Form

Manager Phil Neville’s side were once in a slide as bad or worse than Toronto’s, losing six in a row between late May and late July.

But a 5-0 home thrashing to a rotated New England Revolution squad provided the proverbial look in the mirror Miami needed.

When the form did turn, it turned quickly, beginning with a home draw against Philadelphia and followed by a nice stretch of six wins in nine games.

Miami have done that partly by adjusting expectations — particularly away from home — and focusing on being a tougher team to break down. The Flamengos have kept two consecutive clean sheets on their travels.

Neville also seems to finally be getting the best out of Mexico international Rodolfo Pizarro. The attacking midfielder has returned from injury issues earlier this season to make seven appearances and five starts since Aug. 4.

Defender Ryan Shawcrooss and attacker Federico Higuain are both questionable with injuries, though the latter is usually only used as a late substitute.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

In terms of the three-way line, this game sets off all sorts of alarm bells.

All the form suggests Miami should be away favorites. At the same time, Toronto haven’t been as qualitatively bad as five straight losses suggests, nor has Miami been as qualitatively good as a five-match unbeaten run would indicate.

And the midweek element probably favors Toronto, whose deeper bench makes their struggles even harder to understand.

If you need a lean there, I guess I’d tell you to bet the straight draw at +255 odds, but I don’t feel great about it.

Where I see more reliable value is in a lower total because both teams have considerably different track records at home versus away.

Miami are far more conservative on the road, combining with their opponents to average just 2.2 combined expected goals (xG) per game in 10 matches. The total in those games has gone over 2.5 goals just twice.

Toronto’s games are tighter at home — perhaps because away opponents aren’t as brave about challenging their suspect defense.

Teams have combined to average 2.2 xG per game across five matches since pandemic travel restrictions were lifted, and Toronto FC returned to Canada. The total has gone over in two of those matches.

That’s enough for me to play the under here at -110 odds and an implied 52.4% probability.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110)

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