Our first Thursday Night Football of 2021 between the Bucs and Cowboys was fun, but not every TNF matchup is great. In Week 2, we get an NFC East divisional battle featuring Washington and New York.
Lucky for us, PointsBet is offering a risk-free Same Game Parlay up to $20 to spice things up! The beauty of the SGP is that it lets bettors tie multiple bets together on the same game, allowing us to build a position around a particular game script — these bets are not independent!
Too often, people build SGPs backwards, cobbling together bets they like and then imagining the sort of game they’ll need to root for. We’re actually doing the exact opposite.
Let’s look at the game first and decide on the most likely game script, then check which lines make the most sense.
What Will Happen On TNF?
We shouldn’t expect many points on Thursday night — that’s why we need a SGP to capture our attention. This total opened at 43, the lowest on the board in Week 2, and has been bet down all the way to 40.5 at most books as of Wednesday (check real-time NFL odds here).
Both teams play good, aggressive defense but don’t have much offense to offer.
Washington had one of the league’s top defenses in 2020 featuring a fearsome pass rush with Chase Young and Montez Sweat, then added William Jackson and Jamin Davis to improve even further. New York isn’t quite as dominant without much pass rush, but cornerbacks James Bradberry and Adoree’ Jackson are a top pairing and Leonard Williams is a beast on the line.
The offenses lag far behind.
Washington’s offense loses Ryan Fitzpatrick and turns things over to Taylor Heinecke — an interesting swap that lowers the team’s ceiling without Fitzpatrick’s big arm and playmaking, but raises the floor by removing those Fitzmagic turnovers. Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson give some reason for hope, but offense ranked dead-last in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA last season.
The Giants have given Daniel Jones even more talent to work with, adding free-agent acquisition Kenny Golladay and rookie Kadarius Toney, but Jones continues to disappoint. Saquon Barkley was clearly not at full speed in Week 1 and shouldn’t be much better on a short week. But the real problem on this offense is the outdated play-calling from Jason Garrett and the horrendous offensive line.
The NFL’s worst line had no chance against a fierce Denver defense last week, and this game feels eerily similar. The Giants offense never really got going in their season opener while the Broncos mostly played things safe, managed the game and coasted to a forgettable victory.
That’s the game script we’re playing for our Same Game Parlay: A boring, low-scoring affair that hopefully wins us some cash.
If that’s our game script, here’s a Same Game Parlay that fits our most likely outcome with +655 odds:
- Washington -3 (-121)
- Race to 25, Neither Team (-150)
- Game Alternate Under 34.5 (+180)
- Taylor Heinecke Under 242.5 Pass Yards (-115)
We’re banking on Washington’s awesome front seven to terrorize New York’s terrible O-line, leading to a Football Team victory — but we aren’t expecting many points.
If the Giants top out around 10-14 points and the Football Team plays things safe, Washington may only need 14 to 21 points. We’re betting against neither team getting to 25 points and looking for a final score of 17-10, 20-14, 24-10 — something like that.
If you want to get even more aggressive, you can choose to bet on neither team to score 20 points instead of 25. That increases the odds on your SGP from +655 to +1015, but be careful: Your peak score now is something like 17-13, which leaves you precious little margin for error.
The Heinecke passing follows the game script.
When Washington lost in 2020, the Football Team went over 200 yards in seven of nine games. But when they won, they went under 200 in six of seven games, an 86% hit rate. Heinecke will be a game manager here, especially with a short week to prep in his new role. Expect a low yardage total as long as Washington doesn’t fall way behind, in which case we’re doomed anyway.
I’d love to fade Barkley with a rushing yards under, too, but that’s not available as of writing so you may have to watch for a line later.
For now, let’s bet on a low-scoring Thursday night game that Washington manages and wins in the trenches. It might make for a boring game, but winning money is never boring.
Your risk-free $20 wager at PointsBet pays out $151 if this hits!
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