- The Tampa Bay Rays are -125 home favorites over the Cleveland Guardians in an American League afternoon game set for Saturday, July 30
- Tampa Bay is 7-1 straight up and against the run line in the last eight home games against Cleveland
- Overall, the Rays are 11-2 SU and ATS in the last 13 games when facing the Guardians – see who we like below
A funny thing happened when the Cleveland Guardians (51-48, 26-29 away) were facing the Tampa Bay Rays (53-47, 31-19 home) on Friday. Cleveland won 4-1.
That victory ended Tampa Bay’s 7-0 run at home against Cleveland in which the Rays posted a perfect slate against both the moneyline and the run line. It was Cleveland’s first win at Tampa Bay in almost four years.
If you’re a trend bettor, you need to go back to 2017 to find a time frame when the Guardians were winners of successive games against the Rays in the same season.
It should come as no surprise to discover that oddsmakers are counting on Cleveland doubling down. It’s the Rays who are set as -125 home favorites for Saturday’s second game of this three-game weekend series. Tampa Bay is 14-25 against the run line as the home chalk this season.
First pitch at Tropicana Field is set for 1:10pm ET on Saturday, July 30. Rain with 5 mph wind and a temperature of 54 degrees are in the weather forecast.
Guardians vs Rays Odds
|Cleveland Guardians||+105||+1.5 (-205)||O 7.5 (-110)|
|Tampa Bay Rays||-125||-1.5 (+170)||U 7.5 (-110)|
Odds as of July 29 at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook promo codes.
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At odds of -125, the Rays are offering an implied probability of victory of 55.56% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Tampa Bay would deliver a payout of $18.00.
For all their recent dominance, the public isn’t exactly overwhelmingly embracing the Rays in the MLB betting trends. There’s 52% of public bets backing Tampa Bay in both the moneyline and run line. As well, 52 of public bets are playing the over on the total.
In the MLB Division odds, the betting line is displaying Tampa Bay as the +650 third betting choice to win the AL East. Cleveland is the third betting choice at +1300 to be AL Central champions. The MLB pennant odds show the Rays at +1400 and the Guardians at +5000. In the World Series odds, Tampa Bay is +4000 and Cleveland is +9000.
Cleveland vs Tampa Bay Probable Pitchers
It just hasn’t been Zach Plesac’s year. The Cleveland right-hander has won one game since April. He’s dropped four straight and seven of his last eight decisions.
Plesac, under control through 2025, has produced a 0.0 WAR and 4.09 ERA through 99 innings pitched with CLE, while striking out 6.5 batters per nine. pic.twitter.com/1FcUlOuhJH
— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) July 29, 2022
Advanced metrics are clearly showing that Plesac is struggling. He’s among the bottom 5% of MLB hurlers in xBA (.284) and xSLG (.484). In xERA (5.42) xwOBA (.357) and xwOBAcon (.404) Plesac rates among the lower 8% of pitchers. He’s among the bottom 9% in in max EV (114.4).
Plesac has allowed 11 earned runs over his past 19.2 innings of work. He’s 0-3 with a 5.03 ERA in July. The righty is also 1-6 with a 4.97 in 10 road starts. In two career starts against the Rays, Plesac is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA.
Plesac vs Kluber Stats
An old, familiar face will be facing the Guardians in Rays veteran right-hander Corey Kluber. In nine seasons with Cleveland, Kluber twice led the AL in wins and won a pair of Cy Young awards.
In #Rays Corey Kluber's next start, he'll earn a $1M Bonus. Signed for 1-$8M in Offseason with additional $5M of incentives. Already earned $1M of $4M in Incentives.
You think the Front Office tells Corey they're gonna roll with an Opener (Kidding)
— MLBExecutiveBurner (@HotStoveintel) July 27, 2022
Pitching his first season with the Rays, Kluber is 3-1 over his last four starts. He’s 3-2 with a 5.19 ERA in July. Kluber also rates among the top 3% of MLB pitchers in bases on balls percentage (3.9).
In nine home starts, Kluber is 4-1 with a 3.42 ERA. He’s faced his old team once. Kluber worked six shutout innings and got the win the only previous time he faced the Guardians.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
|Guardians Batters||Batting Average vs Kluber||Rays Batters||Batting Average vs Plesac|
|Alex Call||.000||Randy Arozarena||.333|
|Ernie Clement||.000||Christian Bethancourt||.333|
|Andres Gimenez||1.000||Yu Chang||.000|
|Austin Hedges||.000||Ji-Man Choi||.333|
|Nolan Jones||.000||Yandy Diaz||.000|
|Steven Kwan||.000||Brandon Lowe||.333|
|Luke Maile||.000||Josh Lowe||.000|
|Owen Miller||.000||Isaac Paredes||.333|
|Josh Naylor||.000||Brett Phillips||.000|
|Jose Ramirez||.500||Rene Pinto||.000|
|Franmil Reyes||.000||Roman Quinn||.000|
|Amed Rosario||.000||Luke Raley||.000|
|Myles Straw||.000||Taylor Walls||.000|
Cleveland’s Andres Gimenez is 1-for-1 (1.000) at the plate against Kluber. Jose Ramirez is 1-for-2 (.500).
— Joseph Kim (@blackwings2011) July 3, 2022
Five Tampa Bay batters are hitting .333 when facing Plesac. Randy Arozarena, Christian Bethancourt, Brandon Lowe and Isaac Paredes are all 1-for-3. Ji-Man Choi is 2-for-6 with a solo homer.
Guardians vs Rays Prediction
Just 1-6 straight up in the past seven games, Tampa Bay welcomed the sight of Cleveland arriving in town.
Even with Cleveland’s win on Friday, with the way that the Rays have whipped up on the Guardians in recent years, it’s an easy call to stick with the formula that works.
Nice comments only… he is watching 👀 pic.twitter.com/205ZKZLuFo
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) July 29, 2022
In Cleveland’s last eight games at Tampa Bay, the Guardians show a -27 run differential (45-18).
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML (-125)