- Wales takes on Iran in Group B play on Friday, November 25th at 5:00 am ET
- Iran are only 0-2-7 against European opponents in the World Cup
- Get the Wales vs Iran odds and prediction below
Group B is back in action on Friday as Wales takes on Iran in a pivotal match for qualification. Of course, Wales enter this match off the back of a massive draw against the United States on Monday night. The Americans dominated the first half, but a clumsy tackle from Walker Zimmerman gave Gareth Bale a chance from the penalty spot that he was never going to falter on. Now, the Welsh are in a dogfight for second place; a win would put them in a great position going into Matchday 3.
On the other hand, Iran are trying to save face after a 6-2 drubbing to England. The Three Lions’ finishing was nearly perfect, making for an unfair scoreline. In fact, Iran held England to just 2.1 expected goals. But, when you give a team 77% possession, there is only so much you can do. Nonetheless, Iran did show some offensive grit, which could help them on Friday.
Wales vs Iran Odds
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Overall, both of these teams have plus moneyline odds, with Wales being favorites at +110. This equates to a 47.6% implied win probability. Honestly, this number is quite optimistic for a side that is winless in their last six contests.
— Wales 🏴 (@Cymru) November 21, 2022
Wales vs Iran Over/Under
Additionally, this game is expected to be quiet in terms of goals when looking at the totals line in the World Cup odds. The over on just 2.5 total goals sits at +145 while the reverse option is at a juicy -180. In their last six combined matches, the under at this goal amount has hit 60% of the time.
Wales vs Iran Statistics
|1.10||Goals per game||1.30|
|1.30||Expected goals per game||1.51|
|1.40||Goals allowed per game||1.00|
|0.57||Expected goals allowed per game||1.51|
|10%||Clean Sheet %||60%|
|11.2||Shots per game||10.6|
|D-L-L-L-D||Recent Form Guide (Serie A)||L-W-D-W-L|
Stats in the table from the last ten matches across all competitions.
Still, Wales will be pushing for a win here and could start Kieffer Moore up top, alongside Gareth Bale. With Mehdi Taremi of Porto lined up against them, goals could be more frequent than expected. In truth, the under is probably a bit overvalued here considering Iran, who is the weaker team, has scored in 19 of their last 20 matches.
Mehdi Taremi to Score Odds
Likewise, it is smart to look into the goalscorer market for this game, especially for Taremi. The striker is scoring 0.68 goals per ninety minutes for the national team, an improvement of almost 0.2 goals per ninety from his overall form.
Mehdi Taremi doing what he does best on the biggest stage in world football. 🇮🇷
But that pass from Ali Gholizadeh. 🔥
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) November 21, 2022
He has the fifth-best odds to score in this match, with ridiculously long odds of +280. This play is nearly double the value of Bale’s odds to score anytime. Taremi is an incredibly gifted attacker, who also takes the penalties for Iran, which should boost his value.
Wales vs Iran Projected Lineups and Injuries
Wales Projected Lineup: Hennessey, Williams, Davies, Rodon, Mepham, Roberts, Wilson, Ampadu, Ramsey, Moore, Bale
Major Injuries & Absences: Ampadu (questionable)
Iran Projected Lineup: H. Hosseini, Mohammadi, M. Hosseini, Cheshmi, Pouraliganji, Moharrami, Hajsafi, Karimi, Nourollahi, Gholizadeh, Taremi
Major Injuries & Absences: Beiranvand
Wales vs Iran Prediction
All in all, this Iran side are not as bad as that 6-2 England line might read. They were 3-1-1 in their last five before the World Cup and were caught out by an English side that was finally given the go ahead to attack by Gareth Southgate. Wales will be a much easier side to play against because they struggle to keep possession and put on a weak press.
In turn, I think Iran gets something out of this match, even if it is just a goal. After Wales got a point on Monday, it is hard to bet against them to at least put up a fight in Group B. With that said, both teams to score in this match has odds of +105, which is a great addition to your Black Friday betting card.
Pick: Both teams to score (+105)
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