Man City vs RB Leipzig Odds & Prediction – Champions League Picks

  • Man City hosts RB Leipzig in the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tie on Tuesday, March 14th at 4:00 pm ET
  • These two sides remain deadlocked at one-all thanks to a late, 70th-minute, headed goal from Josko Gvardiol in the first leg
  • Get our Man City vs RB Leipzig prediction and odds below

The Champions League Round of 16 wraps up this week, with Man City vs RB Leipzig highlighting the Tuesday slate. Out of all four matches this week, this is the only one still deadlocked, with so much left to still play for. Man City are heavy favorites on Tuesday but are they the best bet in our Man City vs RB Leipzig prediction?

In the first leg, Man City controlled possession and the chances for the majority of the match, with a tidy Riyad Mahrez finish giving them the advantage into halftime. However, sloppy defending from a set piece gave RB Leipzig the goal they dreamed of at home.

Now, the two sides travel to Manchester for what should be an enthralling second leg affair. Man City have rattled off four wins in a row since the draw, outscoring their opponents by an impressive 10-1 margin. On the other hand, RB Leipzig have won two matches, while losing one to Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Marco Rose does have a concerning injury list too, with Christopher Nkunku and Xaver Schlager being the biggest names set to miss out.

Man City vs RB Leipzig Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
Man City -260
RB Leipzig +700
Draw +425

Overall, Man City are the overwhelming favorites with moneyline odds of -260, which represents an implied win probability of 72.2%. This is not that surprising given that they are the favorites to win the cup (+200)  this year in the Champions League odds. In turn, RB Leipzig are the massive underdogs with moneyline Man City vs RB Leipzig odds of +700. A +1.5 spread play (-130) in favor of Die Rotten Bullen is much more realistic, considering 50% of Man City’s last ten games have fallen within that margin.

Champions League odds as of  March 12th from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Man City vs RB Leipzig Over/Under

Additionally, like most Man City matches, the total goal odds are skewed towards the over. In fact, betting on the over 2.5 goal tally only gives odds of -165, despite these two falling under the total just a couple of weeks ago. Personally, I will be staying away from any sort of play on total goal count, considering we have seen everything from a 1-1 to a 6-3 in just the past couple of years between these sides.

Man City vs RB Leipzig Props – Stay Under in the Corner Market

Another play to look out for in this match in the Man City vs RB Leipzig odds is under 9.5 total corners with odds of -125. Neither of these sides produces many corners, as we saw the total only get up to six in the first leg. Man City have averaged 8.78 total corners in the Premier League this year, while only earning 6.33 of them. Moreover, RB Leipzig puts up similar numbers, only winning 5.04 corners per match. This game could be very nervy for the first thirty minutes or so, which makes this play a no-brainer.

Man City vs RB Leipzig Projected Lineups and Injuries

Man City Projected Lineup: Ederson, Ake, Dias, Akanji, Walker, Rodri, Silva, De Bruyne, Grealish, Haaland, Foden

Major Injuries & Absences: None

RB Leipzig Projected Lineup: Blaswich, Halstenberg, Gvardiol, Orban, Henrichs, Laimer Haidara, Forsberg, Szoboszlai, Werner, Silva

Major Injuries & Absences: Nkunku, Gulacsi, Diallo, Schlager

Man City Are Nearly Unstoppable at the Etihad Stadium

For what it is worth, Man City are a force at the Etihad Stadium, especially in European play. Pep Guardiola’s side has somehow managed to rattle off 23 games unbeaten in the Champions League when playing at their home ground. Their league form at home (11-1-1) also points to them just being more comfortable when playing in front of their own.

Man City vs RB Leipzig Statistics

Man City
RB Leipzig
2.14 Goals per game 2.00
2.14 Expected goals per game 1.60
0.43 Goals allowed per game 1.43
0.59 Expected goals allowed per game 1.19
65.7% Possession % 51.8%
57.1% Clean Sheet % 28.6%
17.3 Shots per game 12.0
W-W-W-W-D Recent Form Guide (All Comps) W-L-W-D-W

Stats in the table from 2022/23 Champions League play.

As much as I want to see an underdog advance in the Champions League, I would expect chalk to win out in this one in our Man City vs RB Leipzig prediction. They have not exited in the Round of 16 since their capitulation against Monaco in 2016/17, which is a fairy tale in its own right. Now, they are a well-oiled machine, that has only picked up steam since that frustrating Gvardiol goal.

Man City vs RB Leipzig Prediction

All in all, I do still expect Leipzig to keep it close, which is why I will ride their +1.5 spread for my Man City vs RB Leipzig prediction. On top of that, throw in a sprinkle on under 9.5 total corners as I really favor that too. Anything else on Tuesday night seems risky to me, just because of the nature of a tied, knockout fixture.

Man City vs RB Leipzig Picks: RB Leipzig +1.5, Under 9.5 Total Corners


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