Porto vs Inter Milan Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Champions League Round of 16 Leg 2

  • It’s Porto vs Inter Milan in the Champions League round-of-16 2nd leg on Tuesday, March 14
  • In-form Porto face a one-goal deficit after Lukaku’s goal settled the first leg in Milan
  • Find our Porto vs Inter Milan prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Porto vs Inter Milan in the UEFA Champions League round-of-16 second leg on Tuesday, March 14. Kick-off in the Estádio do Dragão is at 3:00 pm ET. The hosts start as very marginal favorites but are they the best bet for your Porto vs Inter Milan prediction?

Inter bring the slenderest of leads into this second leg after winning 1-0 in the San Siro, but their recent form is patchy while their Portuguese hosts are on a good run and confidence is high.

We preview our Porto vs Inter Milan picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Porto vs Inter Milan Odds

Matchup Moneyline To Advance
Porto +165 +270
Inter Milan +170 +360
Draw +240 N/A

The bookmakers have Porto listed as plus-money favorites for the win but by the smallest possible margin. At +165 for the home win the Portuguese champions have an implied probability of 37.7%, while Inter are listed at +170 to win the first leg with a win probability of 37.0%. The draw is priced at +240 in the Porto vs Inter Milan odds, which is implied at 29.4%.


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Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 13.

Porto vs Inter Milan Over/Under and Spread

With the benchmark at 2.5, the bookies have pitched the under at -105 and the over at -120.

Porto vs Inter Milan Preview

Despite it being a frustrating night in Milan for Porto, Sergio Conceicao’s men left feeling reasonably satisfied knowing they were returning home to Portugal still very much in the tie.

After losing Otavio with 12 minutes remaining – he was shown red for his second bookable offense – they remained resolute and held the score at 0-0 until the 86th minute when Inter substitute, Romelu Lukaku scored the only goal of the game.

Prior to Lukaku’s goal, Porto had more than held their own in the game and Inter were grateful to keeper Andre Onana for a couple of vital saves. But they face a deficit, so it’s the Portuguese champions who must take the initiative in the second leg.

Good Form but No Primeira Liga This Season for Porto

For the Dragoes, it has been a good season and they qualified for the knockout phase of the UCL by consecutively winning their last four games of Group B, and prior to the World Cup break won 10 games on the spin. But, they will be hard-pushed to retain their Primeira Liga title as, after 24 games, they are eight points adrift of Benfica.

Porto’s recent record at this stage of the UCL is pretty good – they progressed to the last eight in 2019 and 2021 – but they did lose to the Nerazzurri at this same stage of the competition in 2004-05.

Mixed Fortunes for Inzaghi’s men

It’s been a mixed season for Simone Inzaghi’s men who, despite being second in Serie A, are unlikely to retain their title as Napoli are currently 18 points clear. In the Champions League, they have performed well to make it to the round-of-16, beating and knocking out Barcelona in the group stage and coming second in a group that also included Bayern Munich.

While the first leg was a struggle, and they may only have emerged with that 1-0 win due to Porto going down to ten men, it could turn out to be a priceless lead, especially when you consider they have won four of their last seven away games in Europe.

Omens Not Good for Inter

But Inter comes into this game not in the best of form after suffering their eighth Serie A defeat of the campaign at the weekend when they were beaten away from home by 17th-placed Spezia.

Also counting against them is a poor away record against Portuguese teams in European competition, with just one win in their last eight games. This looks likely to be a tough night for the Nerazzurri.

Porto vs Inter Milan Team Lineups and Injuries

Porto Projected Lineup: Costa, Mario, Pepe, Cardoso, Sanusi, Grujic, Uribe, Franco, Pepe, Galen, Taremi.

Injuries & absences: Otavio .

Inter Projected Lineup: Onana, De Vrij, Acerbi, Bastoni, Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco, Martinez, Lukaku.

Injuries & absences: Skriniar.

Porto vs Inter Milan Head-to-Head Stats

Inter Milan
4-0-3 Champions League record 2022-23 4-1-2
12 / 8 Goals for / against 11 / 7
13.3 Shots per game* 12.9
79.4 Passing accuracy (%)* 84.4
45.6 Possession (%)* 50.3
WWLLWW Form guide (all comps) DWWLWL

* Stats from UEFA Official Site.

Porto vs Inter Milan Prediction

As suggested by the bookies’ odds, this could go either way, but Porto are very much the form team and home advantage could be decisive considering Inter’s poor record in Portugal.

For me, there is value in the home win, and even greater value in also betting on Porto to progress.

Porto vs Inter Milan Pick: Porto to win (+165) / Porto to advance 1-0 (+250)

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