Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Spread & Odds for AFC Divisional Round Playoffs
- The final Divisional Round playoff game this weekend sees the Bills hosting the Chiefs at 6:30 pm EST Sunday night
- The Chiefs have been responsible for ending the Bills’ season in two of the past three years, but this will be Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game in his career
- Get the Chiefs vs Bills odds, picks and predictions for the Divisional Round Playoffs here
The Chiefs and Bills matchup for the second time this season after Buffalo won 20-17 back in Week 14. It’s Buffalo favored to win again, this time in the playoffs and this time at home, by 2.5 points in the Bills vs Chiefs odds.
Read on for the full Kansas City vs Buffalo odds and our top Chiefs vs Bills prediction here.
Chiefs vs Bills Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | +2.5 (+100) | +120 | Over 45.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo | -2.5 (-120) | -145 | Under 45.5 (-110) |
In the closest lined game in the Divisional Round, the Bills are 2.5-point favorites in the Chiefs vs Bills odds on Sunday night and to win straight up they are -145 on the moneyline. That means they have a 59.18 impled probability to advance. This game has a total set at 45.5 which has come down from 46.5.
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How to Watch Kansas City vs Buffalo
Viewers in the United States can watch this Kansas City vs Buffalo game on Sunday on CBS, while viewers in Canada can watch on DAZN or TSN.
Chiefs vs Bills Head-to-Head History
As mentioned, the Bills took the most recent meeting, but in a controversial fashion, by a 20-17 score in October in Kansas City. Buffalo jumped out to a 14-0 lead before the Chiefs pulled level at 17-17 in the fourth quarter. A late Tyler Bass field goal put Buffalo ahead, but a wild sequence of events that saw Travis Kelce catch a Patrick Mahomes pass and lateral to Kadarius Toney for a potential game-winning touchdown was wiped off the board as Toney had lined up offside.
Buffalo has now won back-to-back games over the Chiefs and three of the past four, however, have lost in the playoffs versus the Chiefs in each of the past two meetings.
While this year’s game only saw 37 total points, the previous four games saw total points of 44, 78, 58 and 62 points.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen has quickly become the best QB rivalry in the league and it’s not hard to see why.
The two are 3-3 head-to-head and about to meet in the postseason for the third time in the last four years. (THREAD) pic.twitter.com/HA1q7e4ACO
— NFL (@NFL) January 18, 2024
Chiefs vs Bills Public Betting Trends
In NFL public betting, the public is siding with the Chiefs as underdogs in this game with over 60% of the money and bets coming in on Kansas City on the spread. There is a higher percentage of money on the Chiefs on the moneyline (78%), but a higher percentage of bets (55%) on Buffalo on the moneyline. No matter the money or bets, the public is aligned with the majority of the money (84%) and bets (78%) on the Over at the time of this writing.
Chiefs vs Bills Weather Forecast
It’s another snowy weekend projected in Buffalo with anywhere from 1-4 feet of snow expected. Temperatures are expected to be between 18-23 degrees and winds up to 13 mph and wind gusts of up to 20 mph. Much like the anticipated weather last week, this could play a factor for both teams being able to operate their offenses, especially the passing games.
Rice Steps Up for Chiefs in Wild Card
Kansas City may have topped the AFC West this season, but they didn’t look great doing it with an offense that scored just 21.8 PPG and averaged the most dropped passes at 2.6 per game.
Both Mahomes and Kelce have had down seasons, though Isiah Pacheco fell just shy of 1,000 yards rushing with 935, and Rashee Rice stepped up in his rookie season with 79 catches for 938 yards and seven touchdowns. Rice led the Chiefs in receiving scores ahead of Kelce’s five, and looks to be the most reliable option for receivers if targeting Chievs vs Bills props.
It was Rice who shouldered the load last week in the Wild Card Playoffs versus Miami totalling 8 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs’ 6th-ranked defense, giving up just 18.3 PPG, shut down Tua and the Dolphins in 26-7 win. Still, the Chiefs stalled out in the red zone last week going 2/6 and settled for multiple field goals. Thus leaving the game still within striking distance for Miami at just 19-7 entering the fourth quarter.
Since losing to the Bills in Week 14, the Chiefs are now 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS.
#Bills interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady on Josh Allen’s 52-yard touchdown run & Allen running the ball in general:
“I think when you try to hold Josh Allen back you’re probably doing a disservice.” pic.twitter.com/8vTRs6xVtl
— Heather Prusak (@haprusak) January 18, 2024
Bills Roll Past Steelers In Rescheduled Game
Not many would have expected the Bills to still be standing after a 2-4 slide during the mid-point of the season. But after last week’s Wild Card win over Pittsburgh, the Bills are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS entering the Division Round. Their Super Bowl 58 odds are now +500 and trail only the Ravens and 49ers.
Originally scheduled to play in frigid, snowy and windy conditions last Sunday, the league, citing safety concerns for all involved, moved the game to Monday to avoid the worst of the weaher.
Josh Allen and the Bills used that extra day and better weather to their advantage, storming out of the gates to take a 21-0 lead and going on to win comfortably, 31-17. Allen threw for 203 yards and 3 TDs to three different receivers, while rushing in another score himself on the ground.
Allen has thrown for a total of 32 TDs while rushing for 16 TDs, giving 48 combined TDs on the year. He also avoided throwing an interception, something he’s only avoided doing twice in his last 14 games.
Chiefs vs Bills Head-to-Head Stats
| 10-7 / 9-7-1 | Record / ATS | 11-6 / 7-10 |
| 15th (21.8) | PPG Scored | 6th (26.5) |
| 9th | YPG Offense | 4th |
| 6th | Passing YPG | 8th |
| 19th | Rushing YPG | 7th |
| 2nd (17.3) | PPG Allowed | 4th (18.3) |
| 2nd | YPG Allowed | 9th |
| 4th | Passing YPG Allowed | 7th |
| T-17th | Rushing YPG Allowed | 15th |
*Regular season stats
Chiefs vs Bills Prediction
The are plenty of injury concerns here, especially on the Bills’ side as numerous players went down injured last week or were already dealing with injuries. The Chiefs vs Bills injury report lists WR Gabe Davis out once again and WR Stefon Diggs questionable on the offense. While defensively LBs Tyrel Dodson and Terrel Bernard and CBs Taron Johnson and Rasul Douglas are all questionable. In fact, even punter Sam Martin is questionable as well.
The Chiefs see WR Kadarius Toney, DT Derrick Nnadi and CB L’Jarius Sneed all questionable.
We’ve yet to see Mahomes play a playoff game on the road, so this will be new territory for the Chiefs’ QB. But while he’s rarely lined as an underog in the NFL point spread, when he is, he’s been money, going 8-1 ATS in his last nine games in that role and 8-1-1 in his career.
Despite the high-profile quarterbacks on both teams, both Buffalo and Kansas City have been among the highest Under teams this season. Kansas City tied for the most Unders in the regular season at 12-5, and going Under last week leaves them with the most combined regular season and playoff Unders at 13-5. They’ve also gone Under in each of their last four games and 11/14.
The Bills were 11-6 to the Under this season, but avoided playing in terrible weather last week with their game being moved, and ended up easily going Over the total of 39.5. They’ve gone Over in 3/4 games.
This game is again expected to have some weather concerns which could play a role in keeping the score down so long as the game doesn’t get moved again. Even without weather concerns, the Chiefs have not been an explosive offense all season and the Bills have focused on the run more since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. Let’s back the Under in our Kansas City vs Buffalo prediction.
Chiefs vs Bills Picks: Under 45.5
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