Marlins vs Cubs Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers (May 5)
- The Cubs are -168 home favorites over the Marlins on Friday
- Edward Cabrera (2-2, 4.67) will start for the Marlins against Cubs lefty Justin Steele (4-0, 1.49)
- A look at the Marlins vs Cubs predictions and odds can be found below
For the second weekend in a row, the Miami Marlins and Cubs meet in a three-game series, beginning at 2:20 p.m. ET Friday at Wrigley Field in Chicago.
The Marlins (16-16, 6-7 road) lost to the Braves 6-3 on Thursday at home as Atlanta completed a three-game series sweep. Miami had won four straight games entering the series.
The Cubs (15-16, 8-8 home) lost their third game in a row and for the sixth time in seven games when they fell 4-3 to the Nationals in Washington.
MLB Network will televise the game.
Marlins vs Cubs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | +142 | +1.5 (-137) | Over 9 (-110) |
| Chicago Cubs | -168 | -1.5 (+114) | Under 9 (-110) |
The Cubs are -168 favorites on the moneyline over the Marlins on Friday in the MLB odds, giving them a 62.69% implied win probability. Miami has +8000 World Series championship odds and Chicago is listed +10000.
It will be a bit of a windy day in Wrigleyville. The weather forecast calls for sunny skies, a high of 67 and south wind from 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20.
Odds as of May 4th at FanDuel. Use this FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to wager on Marlins vs Cubs.
Marlins vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
Edward Cabrera (2-2, 4.67) is expected to start for the Marlins against left-hander Justin Steele (4-0, 1.09). Cabrera will be pitching on five days of rest and Steele on four.
Cabrera vs Steele
| 2-2 | Record | 4-0 |
| 4.67 | ERA | 1.49 |
| 4.24 | xERA | 3.22 |
| 1.74 | WHIP | 0.96 |
| 1.44 | SO/W | 2.91 |
Cabrera beat the Cubs last Saturday in Miami, striking out 12 in five innings, though he also walked five. Chicago managed just two runs and three hits off Cabrera.
Cabrera stayed perfect against the Cubs with a 2-0 career record and 3.00 ERA over three starts.
The Marlins have split Cabrera’s six starts this season and he has just one quality start to his record. He has struggled on the road with an 0-2 record and 6.00 ERA in three starts while going 1-1 with a 4.32 ERA in four starts during the day.
Last Sunday in Miami, Steele pitched six innings against the Marlins but did not factor in the decision after winning his previous four starts. He gave up three runs (two earned) and seven hits with three strikeouts and one walk.
2023 NL ERA Leaders:
Justin Steele (1.49)
Bryce Elder (1.75)
Clayton Kershaw (1.89)
Graham Ashcraft (2.00)All Leaders: https://t.co/AtTgfvkfD0 pic.twitter.com/G4pn4t3KpR
— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) May 4, 2023
Steele has faced the Marlins twice in his career with no record and a 1.69 ERA.
Steele has been outstanding at Wrigley Field this season, going 2-0 with a 0.52 ERA in three starts. He is also 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts in day games. Steele has notched quality starts in five of his six outings and the Cubs are 4-2 when he pitches.
Despite leading the National League in ERA, Steele’s NL Cy Young odds are +6000.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Marlins Batters | Batting Average vs Justin Steele |
|---|---|
| Garrett Hampson | 1.000 |
| Nick Fortes | 1.000 |
| Jon Berti | .667 |
| Luis Arraez | .333 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | .250 |
| Jacob Stallings | .167 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | .000 |
| Jean Segura | .000 |
| Jorge Soler | .000 |
| Peyton Burdick | .000 |
| Jesus Sanchez | .000 |
| Cubs Batters | Batting Average vs Edward Cabrera |
| Nico Hoerner | .500 |
| Trey Mancini | .500 |
| Patrick Wisdom | .333 |
| Ian Happ | .200 |
| Dansby Swanson | .000 |
| Nelson Velazquez | .000 |
| Seiya Suzuki | .000 |
| Tucker Barnhart | .000 |
| Cody Bellinger | .000 |
| Eric Hosmer | .000 |
| Nick Madrigal | .000 |
Marlins utility man Garrett Hampson is likely to get a start as he is 3 for 3 with two doubles against Steele in his career. Catcher Jacob Stallings, though, is 1 for 6.
Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson is 0 for 3 against Cabrera but has drawn five walks in eight plate appearances.
Marlins vs Cubs Betting Trends
Jorge Soler had three hits, including a home run, and drove in all three Marlins’ runs in their loss to the Braves on Thursday. Jon Berti also had three hits.
The Marlins called up veteran right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez from Triple-A Jacksonville before the game to work out of the bullpen.
Batazo Gigante from el Cubano Gigante. pic.twitter.com/7rm99mEUgt
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) May 4, 2023
The Cubs lost to the Nationals on Thursday on Alex Call’s leadoff walk-off home run in the ninth inning. Cody Bellinger had two hits for Chicago.
The Cubs are expected to call up first base prospect Matt Mervis from Triple-A Iowa prior to Friday’s game to make his major-league debut. The 25-year-old is hitting .286 with six home runs for Iowa in 24 games.
Marlins vs Cubs Last 10 Games
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/30/23 | Marlins | Cubs | MIA, 4-3 |
| 4/29/23 | Marlins | Cubs | MIA, 7-6 |
| 4/28/23 | Marlins | Cubs | MIA, 3-2 |
| 9/21/22 | Marlins | Cubs | CHC, 4-3 |
| 9/20/22 | Marlins | Cubs | CHC, 2-1 |
| 9/19/22 | Marlins | Cubs | MIA, 10-3 |
| 8/7/22 | Cubs | Marlins | MIA, 3-0 |
| 8/6/22 | Cubs | Marlins | CHC, 4-0 |
| 8/5/22 | Cubs | Marlins | CHC, 2-1 |
| 8/15/21 | Marlins | Cubs | MIA, 4-1 |
The Marlins swept a three-game series from the Cubs last weekend in Miami as second baseman Luis Arreaz, who has +8000 NL MVP odds, went 5 for 9 with two walks and center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. was 5 for 11. Since 2021, the Marlins are 10-5 against the Cubs.
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction
Both teams are struggling as they come into this series, but Steele has been outstanding this season and is worth riding as the NL ERA leader.
Pick: Cubs -168 ML
Season Record: 13-6 (+5.1 units) ML; 2-2 (0.0 units) RL; 1-0 (+1.0 unit) O/U; 16-8 (+6.1 units) overall
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