Week 6 NFL Player Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, October 16

• Week 6 NFL player props have opened up at online sportsbooks
• Get our best NFL prop picks for Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Kenneth Walker III, and player props for the highest total on the board in Buffalo vs Kansas City
• See all the passing, rushing, and receiving lines, as well as touchdown odds, plus our best player prop picks below

Who are the best bets in NFL Week 6 to find the endzone and put up the biggest (or least) offensive numbers? We’ve scoured the matchups and NFL odds and have come up with our best passing, receiving, rushing and touchdown props for Week 6.

Last week we were only 5-6, dropping 1.26 units to bring us to 26-24, -1.05 units on the year. It somehow felt worse though when Damien Harris was knocked out early with no chance of reaching his rushing total or finding paydirt. Then there’s the Jaguars. Forget about James Robinson or Christian Kirk specifically finding the endzone. Nobody wearing a Jaguars uniform managed to score. At home. To the Texans.

We soldier on.

Read on for our Week 6 NFL player props, as well as all the lines for each set of NFL player props.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

All prop odds as of October 14. Be sure to check out this unique DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

Tom Brady and Josh Allen are both expected to have big days on Sunday as they are the only two quarterbacks listed at 2.5 in the touchdown passes totals above.

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Best Passing Props to Bet for Week 6

1) Josh Allen over 2.5 passing touchdowns  (+130); risk 0.75 units at DraftKings Sportsbook

I keep going back to Josh Allen here, but look. Five weeks have been played. Only six quarterbacks have thrown for double-digit passing scores to average two or more passing TDs per week.

Carson Wentz (10) and Jared Goff (11) are two of those six. Wentz already played on TNF. Goff is on a bye. Justin Herbert (10) plays on Monday so doesn’t figure into our Sunday NFL props. Lamar Jackson is third in the league with 12 passing TDs and could be worth a bet as well against the Giants.

And then it’s Allen, second with 14 TDs and Patrick Mahomes, first with 15. And those two guys just happen to be playing each other this week.

Allen has thrown for multiple TDs in four of five games this year including four last week. He also threw for four TDs last season in the playoffs against Kansas City, where the Bills lost 42-36 in OT.

The Chiefs are 24th in passing YPG allowed and have given up the most passing TDs (10) in the redzone of any team this season. The Bills vs Chiefs total of 54 points is the highest on the board for Week 6 and if the score comes anywhere close to that, Allen should be heavily involved.

Top QBs in TYA through Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season:

1. Josh Allen: 549.7
2. Patrick Mahomes: 400.3
3. Geno Smith: 361.0
4. Justin Herbert: 306.1
5. Jalen Hurts: 290.7https://t.co/HMIcmMkAMd pic.twitter.com/FMMfH36gpQ

— QB Math (@QB_Math) October 11, 2022

2) Cooper Rush under 218.5 passing yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Eagles are 5-0 entering this key NFC East showdown and will be looking to put some distance between themselves and the 4-1 Cowboys in the division.

Last week Philly allowed Kyler Murray to throw for 250 yards. Trevor Lawrence had just 174 the week prior. Carson Wentz threw for 211, Kirk Cousins 221 and Jared Goff 215 despite the Lions scoring 35 points in the weeks prior.

That averages out to just 189.4 YPG allowed through the air for Philly, ranking fifth.

Dallas may be flying high themselves on the back of four-straight wins but Cooper Rush hasn’t had any spectacular showings. He threw for 102 yards last week, and 223, 215 and 235 passing yards in his previous starts since Dak Prescott went down.

NFL Rushing Props

At 91.5 rushing yards, Cleveland’s Nick Chubb is listed with the highest Week 6 rushing prop total.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for Week 6

1)  Leonard Fournette over 94.5 rushing & receiving yards (-115); risk 1 unit DraftKings Sportsbook

The Steelers rank just 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game. The Bucs don’t run the ball much, ranking 31st in rushing YPG at just 66 YPG. But when they do run the ball, it’s only going one way. And that’s to Leonard Fournette who accounts for 74 of Tampa Bay’s 106 rushing attempts. He’s only run for 280 yards on the year though for one TD.

However, Tom Brady has been utilizing him in the passing game too where Fournette is actually the Bucs’ second most-targeted player. His 30 targets are just behind the 31 thrown to Russell Gage. But Fournette has the most receptions on the team with 26 and has two receiving TDs.

Combine Fournette’s rushing and receiving yards through five weeks and he’s totaled 137, 74, 70, 54 and 139 yards.

Leonard Fournette splits this season (per game)

As a bell-cow in Weeks 1 – 3 (greater than 80% of snaps)
– 19 rush attempts
– 4 targets
– 12.4 PPR points

With a 60% snap share Weeks 4-5
– 8.5 rush attempts
– 9 targets
– 27.2 PPR points

The new rush attempts/targets split is 🔥

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) October 10, 2022

2)  Rhamondre Stevenson over 79.5 rushing yards (-125); risk 1 unit DraftKings Sportsbook

It’s time to buy Rhamondre Stevenson stock. First Ty Montgomery II went down injured for the Patriots. Then Damien Harris suffered a hamstring injury last week and left the game. He’s likely out for multiple weeks. Montgomery can come off the IR this week but he’s not expected back at practice yet.

When Harris went down last week it became the Stevenson show, as the 2021 fourth-round pick had a career day. Stevenson ran for 161 yards on 25 carries. He also caught two passes out of the backfield. Stevenson was still seeing a significant amount of carries even before the Harris injury, running the ball 14 and 12 times in the two weeks prior for 66 and 73 yards.

As the clear RB1 going up against a Browns’ run D that ranks 28th, Stevenson looks a good pick for your NFL player props for Week 6.

Rhamondre Stevenson is in line for a significant workload Sunday against a Browns defense that has allowed 440 rushing yards over the past two weeks. pic.twitter.com/Xp1ZAltA23

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 12, 2022

NFL Receiving Props

Ja’Marr Chase, Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs, Marquise Brown and Justin Jefferson are all lined at 6.5 total receptions for Week 6. Copper Kupp has the highest total at 7.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for Week 6

1) Stefon Diggs over 87.5 receiving yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

Stefon Diggs has eclipsed the century mark for receiving yards in three of five weeks this season. He caught 8/11 passes last week for 102 yards and one TD. He’s also caught a touchdown pass in 3/5 weeks for a total of five.

The Chiefs are allowing 255.6 YPG through the air on defense (24th) and have allowed the second-most red zone touchdowns in the league (12). Of those 12, ten have come through the air.

The Bills rank first in DVOA at 38.7-percent and the past two weeks, the top receiver against the Chiefs has gone over 100 yards. Davante Adams had 124 yards last week for Vegas and Mike Evans had 103 the week prior for the Bucs.

2) Marquise Brown over 69.5 receiving yards (-140); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

Marquise Brown has been the player Kyler Murray looks to most consistently in the passing game. He was targeted just six times in Week 1 but followed that up with 11, 17, 11 and ten looks in the following weeks respectively. Brown has been targeted the joint-second-most times in the league at 55. That ties Justin Jefferson of Minnesota and is only behind Cooper Kupp (64) of LA.

Brown’s receptions on those targets have read four, six, 14, six and eight.

Seattle is dead-last in YPG allowed and just 26th in passing yards allowed.

Most receiving yards through week 5…

Justin Jefferson – 547
Cooper Kupp – 527
Tyreek Hill – 524
Stefon Diggs – 508
AJ Brown – 436
Courtland Sutton – 417
Marquise Brown – 417
Davante Adams – 414
Tyler Lockett – 406
Jaylen Waddle – 404

— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) October 11, 2022

3) Tyler Higbee over 5.5 receptions (-125); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

The LA Rams offense runs almost exclusively through Cooper Kupp. Kupp leads the league in targets and receptions. At this point, finding value in Kupp in the player props markets is tough to do.

But not every single pass can go to Kupp. On the rare occasion, Matthew Stafford looks elsewhere, those other passes often go toward TE Tyler Higbee. Higbee is second on the team in targets (48) and receptions (33).

Last week Higbee actually tied Kupp in targets with ten. The two were some of the most targeted players in the passing game for Week 5 overall. He caught seven of those ten passes last week, and ten, four, seven and five in the weeks prior.

The Rams are heavy 10-point favorites over the Panthers this week and desperately need a win. Carolina is in disarray at 1-4 and just fired head coach Matt Rhule. And, starting QB Baker Mayfield is out injured. The Rams should win this one and Higbee should factor in the Week 6 NFL player props.

Most receptions without a TD this season:

27 — Tyler Lockett
26 — Tyler Higbee

The Tyler curse? pic.twitter.com/1PLC17TwOx

— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 4, 2022

Touchdown Props

At odds of -150 and -140 respectively, Leonard Fournette and Aaron Jones are among the top favorites to find the endzone in Week 6.

Here’s who I like to find the endzone and why for my Week 3 NFL player props:

1. Kenneth Walker III anytime touchdown (+110); risk 0.50 units at DraftKings Sportsbook: As injuries continue to pile up for teams around the league five weeks in, opportunities arise for new players to bet in your player props. Seahawks’ lead back Rashaad Penny is done for the year with an ankle injury. Enter Kenneth Walker III, the 2022 second-round draft pick. Walker ran for 88 yards on eight carries last week and scored his first TD. The Cardinals may be good against the run (5th), but they have given up 11 redzone touchdowns. Now eight of those have come through the air but they’ve also allowed three on the ground as well.
2. Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown (-115); risk 0.75 units at DraftKings Sportsbook: We’ve backed Diggs earlier in the receiving yardage props, so why not also back him to score a TD? He’s pulled down a score in 3/5 games and KC has allowed ten passing red zone TDs this season.
3. Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (-130); risk 0.75 units at DraftKings Sportsbook: If the oddsmakers are correct and this Buffalo vs Kansas City game turns into a shootout, there will be touchdowns from both sides. On the KC side, it’s not hard to see Mahomes’ most reliable target Travis Kelce being involved. After a four-TD performance on MNF, he leads all receivers with seven TDs. He’s also scored in four of five games this season.
4. Dalvin Cook anytime touchdown (-145); risk 0.75 units at DraftKings Sportsbook. Dalvin Cook had been kept relatively quiet through four weeks with just one rushing TD. However, last week he found the endzone twice, rushing for 94 yards and catching two passes for 27 yards as well. That came in Minnesota’s 29-22 win over Chicago. Miami just got scorched last week against the Jets, losing 40-17. They allowed Breece Hall to rush for 97 yards and a score and gave up a total of 135 yards on the ground. A Dolphins team with third-string QB Skylar Thompson at the helm likely won’t be moving the chains too much, leaving Minnesota with the bulk of possession and plenty of opportunities to feed Cook.
5. Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (-105); risk 0.50 units at DraftKings Sportsbook. I was about to leave it at that but then realized if I think the Vikings will have plenty of chances to score, then how can you not back Justin Jefferson who leads all receivers with 547 yards? He’s only scored twice this season, both coming in Week 1. But last week he caught 12/13 passes for 154 yards. This could be the week he finds the endzone again against a beat-up Dolphins minus their top two QBs and who had CB Xavien Howard dealing with an injury earlier in the week.

The post Week 6 NFL Player Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, October 16 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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